In the first four months of 2026, China's textile industry delivered a seemingly stable performance: industrial value-added grew year-on-year, retail sales recovered moderately, and total profits turned positive. However, a structural breakdown reveals uneven growth—significant divergence between chemical fiber and apparel sectors, while export pressures are transmitting from orders to profit statements.
Data Overview: Moderate Growth, Structural Divergence
According to publicly available data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to April 2026, the textile industry's industrial value-added grew by approximately 4.2% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.8 percentage points compared to the same period in 2025. During the same period, fixed asset investment in the textile sector increased by 6.1% year-on-year, mainly concentrated in chemical fiber and dyeing segments, while investment willingness in apparel remained cautious.
Domestically, retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and textiles by enterprises above the designated size increased by 3.5% year-on-year, decelerating by 1.2 percentage points from the same period in 2025. Online channel growth slowed to below 5%, while offline department stores saw slight negative growth. This indicates that the foundation of consumer recovery is fragile, with consumers remaining restrained in spending on non-essential textile products.
Profit improvement is worth noting. From January to April, textile enterprises above the designated size saw revenue increase by 3.8% year-on-year, with total profit up by 7.2%, and profit margin recovering to 3.8%. However, profit improvement was mainly driven by the chemical fiber sector, with its profit margin exceeding 5%, while the apparel and home textile manufacturing sectors had profit margins of only around 2.5%.
Export Pressure: Slowing Growth, Changing Order Structure
Customs data shows that from January to April 2026, China's total textile and apparel exports decreased by 1.5% year-on-year. Textile products (yarn, fabrics, etc.) exports fell by 2.8%, while apparel exports saw a slight increase of 0.3%. By major markets, exports to ASEAN grew by 5.2%, while those to the EU fell by 3.1% and to the US by 2.4%.
The underlying cause of export decline is not disappearing demand but accelerated order transfer. Vietnam, Bangladesh, and other countries are increasingly competitive in cotton spinning and low-end apparel, while China's advantages are concentrating on high-value-added chemical fibers and functional fabrics. This structural shift means that a model relying solely on scale expansion is no longer sustainable.
Industrial Belt Response: Temperature Differences Between Keqiao and Shengze
Feedback from industrial belts also shows clear divergence. In Keqiao, Shaoxing, inventory days for grey fabric rose from 28 days at end-2025 to 32 days, with weaving enterprise operating rates at around 75%, lower than the same period in 2024. In contrast, in Shengze, Wujiang, operating rates for chemical fiber fabric enterprises remained above 85%, with some differentiated products (e.g., recycled polyester, bio-based nylon) even in short supply.
The Nantong home textile cluster faces dual pressure from domestic and foreign markets. Domestically, the post-real estate cycle has weakened demand for weddings and relocation; externally, US tariffs on certain home textile categories have led to order losses to Southeast Asia. Local enterprises are accelerating transformation toward functional home textiles (e.g., antibacterial, flame-retardant), but it is difficult to fill traditional order gaps in the short term.
Upstream-Downstream Transmission: Chemical Fiber Price Hikes Squeeze Weaving Profits
In Q1 2026, international crude oil price fluctuations combined with tight PTA supply drove polyester filament yarn prices up by 8% cumulatively. However, price transmission to the weaving sector was not smooth—downstream apparel brands are sensitive to fabric procurement costs, compressing weaving enterprises' gross margins by 1-2 percentage points.
This contradiction eased after April, as new PX capacity came online, lowering PTA prices and relieving cost pressure on chemical fiber. However, the high inventory problem for weaving enterprises remains unresolved, with some small and medium-sized factories choosing to reduce production to stabilize prices. Industry estimates suggest that if domestic demand does not pick up in the second half of the year, the weaving sector may face a new round of consolidation.