Diverging Textile Raw Material Prices: Cotton Yarn Rises Alone as Chemical Inputs Plunge, Revealing Supply Chain Dynamics

During the 25th week of 2026, the textile bulk commodity price index sent an alarming signal: among 17 monitored varieties, only 2 rose, 13 fell, with an average decline of 1.65%. More notably, varieties with declines exceeding 5% accounted for 11.8% of the sector, a rare occurrence in recent months.

Supply-Demand Logic Behind Price Divergence

The only gainers this week were cotton yarn 21S and 32S, with weekly increases of 0.14% and 0.10% respectively. Although modest, they stood out in a broadly declining market. The slight strength in cotton yarn prices was mainly supported by rigid upstream cotton costs—despite a 1.23% drop in raw cotton prices this week, they are still 16.08% higher year-on-year. This means cotton textile mills have not seen a real easing of raw material cost pressures, and the firmness in yarn quotes is more a passive transmission.

However, the chemical raw material sector suffered a collective heavy blow. Acrylonitrile led the decline with a 6.92% weekly drop, followed by PTA falling 5.10%, and polyester filament series (DTY, POY, FDY) declining between 1.62% and 2.60%. The sharp drop in acrylonitrile is particularly noteworthy: its year-on-year increase is still 25%, indicating that the high-level bubble accumulated earlier is rapidly deflating. The decline in PTA is directly linked to crude oil price fluctuations and adjustments in the polyester chain operating rates, reflecting a lack of effective demand-side support for upstream raw materials.

Supply Chain Transmission: Stress Test from Raw Materials to Finished Products

This week's price fluctuations are not isolated but represent a stress test across the entire textile supply chain. Polyester yarn prices fell across the board: polyester staple fiber down 0.91%, polyester yarn down 1.79%, and polyester DTY down 2.60%. This indicates that downstream weaving and garment companies are reducing procurement intentions, with insufficient demand growth for chemical fiber products, leading to inventory pressure transmitting back to upstream raw material suppliers.

The nylon series also failed to escape: nylon DTY, POY, and FDY fell 0.88%, 1.09%, and 1.21% respectively. The direct cause is the loosening of caprolactam prices, but the deeper reason is slowing demand growth for nylon fabrics in end markets, especially in major applications like outdoor sportswear and high-end down jackets, where order increments fell short of expectations.

Notably, spandex prices also fell by 0.56%, despite still being 21.09% higher year-on-year. As a key raw material for elastic fabrics, spandex price trends are often seen as a leading indicator of garment consumption activity. This week's pullback may signal that the downstream garment companies' restocking cycle is nearing its end.

Raw silk was one of the biggest losers this week, down 1.99%, and is the only variety in the textile sector showing a year-on-year decline of 10.12%. This reflects weak demand for silk products in international markets, particularly the slower-than-expected recovery of purchasing power in high-end European and American consumer markets, coupled with intensified competition from emerging markets like India.

Viscose and Cotton Yarn: Concerns Amid Relative Strength

Viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn prices were flat this week, with zero weekly change. Viscose staple fiber is up 9.06% year-on-year, while rayon yarn is up 3.17%. This 'neither up nor down' state actually reflects a fragile balance in the market: on one hand, high costs of dissolving pulp and chemical auxiliaries prevent viscose prices from falling; on the other hand, downstream rayon fabric orders are not strong enough to drive prices upward.

The relative strength of cotton yarn cannot mask the underlying concerns in the entire cotton textile chain. Raw cotton prices fell 1.23% this week, with a year-on-year increase of 16.08%, but cotton yarn prices only edged up 0.10%-0.14%. This means the profit margins of spinning mills are being squeezed—high cotton costs combined with weak yarn pricing power may further narrow industry gross margins.

Practical Recommendations

For Purchasers - Slow down procurement of chemical raw materials (acrylonitrile, PTA, polyester) and wait for prices to stabilize; further declines are expected in the next 1-2 weeks. - Maintain normal procurement pace for cotton yarn, but monitor cotton prices closely; if raw cotton falls below 17,000 RMB/ton, yarn prices may follow. - Purchase viscose staple fiber on an as-needed basis; current prices are at a balance point with low probability of large fluctuations.

For Foreign Trade Companies - Consider lowering export quotes for polyester and nylon fabrics to cope with price pressure from Southeast Asian competitors. - For silk products, pay attention to RMB exchange rates and European/American consumption data; raw silk prices may continue to weaken; consider shortening order cycles. - For cotton yarn export orders, especially high-count yarns above 32S, moderately increase quotes by leveraging the quality advantages of domestic cotton yarn to seek premiums.