The 60-day ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz has not brought relief to the global textile and chemical supply chains. While crude oil futures fell nearly 16% in June, the core variable of shipping costs—war risk premiums and the number of backlogged tankers—remains elevated, meaning the chemical fiber, fabric, and dyeing sectors cannot yet enjoy stable raw material cost benefits.
Data Contradictions Post-Ceasefire
As of June 23, industry data shows 162 laden crude oil tankers, carrying approximately 120 million barrels, stranded in and around the Strait of Hormuz. This count only includes vessels with AIS signals active; many 'dark ships' with transponders turned off are excluded, suggesting the real backlog is higher. Compared to pre-conflict norms, daily vessel transits are still below 60%, with shipowners adopting a cautious re-entry strategy rather than mass transit.
In international crude oil prices, WTI closed at $73.21/barrel and Brent at $76.85/barrel, each down about 1% on the day; both benchmarks have accumulated nearly 16% declines in June. The market has quickly priced out geopolitical risk premiums, but multiple institutional analysts caution that the current correction is more about short-term sentiment than a fundamental reversal. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Lee Klaskow notes the 60-day ceasefire is highly fragile, with deep disagreements among Middle Eastern parties unresolved.
War Risk Premiums: The Core Barrier to Shipping Recovery
Even with the de-escalation, war risk premiums in the Strait of Hormuz remain at around 1% of hull value, compared to 0.1% pre-conflict. For a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC), the cost of a single transit is as high as $2 million—a tenfold increase. This directly erodes shipping companies' profit margins, leading to conservative operational strategies: some small-to-mid-sized shipowners are rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, while major players are deploying only a few vessels for trial runs.
For the textile industry, the cost transmission chain is clear: lower crude oil prices benefit raw material costs for PTA and MEG, but high shipping premiums mean impaired transport efficiency, longer lead times, and increased supply uncertainty. If the Strait sees renewed attacks or diplomatic escalation, the outflow of backlogged crude will be interrupted, risk premiums will rebound quickly, and oil prices may stage a recovery.
Upstream-Downstream Impact: The Waiting Game for Chemical Fiber and Fabric Buyers
From an industrial cluster perspective, China's Keqiao, Shengze, and Nantong hubs are in a wait-and-see mode. PTA futures have weakened with crude oil, but spot markets have not followed suit significantly due to delayed cargo arrivals. Traders are generally adopting short-term procurement strategies to avoid inventory cost increases if shipping recovery disappoints.
Industry data shows the pace of navigation recovery in the Strait is far below expectations: clearing the backlog will take weeks, compounded by shipowners' caution over insurance, demurrage, and rerouting costs, creating a congestion stalemate of 'can go but dare not, want to go but queue.' This means even if the ceasefire extends, global crude transport efficiency cannot return to pre-conflict levels in the short term.