US cotton spot prices experienced a moderate pullback in the final week of June. According to the latest USDA weekly data, the average price for base quality cotton across seven designated markets stood at 70.84 cents per pound for the week ending June 25, down 28 points from the prior week. While the decline was not drastic, it pushed prices to a two-week low—daily quotes ranged from a high of 72.68 cents on Monday to a low of 69.28 cents on Wednesday, a swing of over 3 cents. Still, compared to 65.05 cents a year ago, current levels remain 8.9% higher, indicating a significantly raised floor.
Notably, total spot sales for the 2025/26 season (starting August 1) reached 1.516 million bales, a 55.6% surge from 974,340 bales in the same period last year. This suggests that despite the price dip, upstream buying appetite has not faded; instead, it appears stronger at the start of the season. The driving force may be expectations of tighter future supply—current extreme weather divergence across producing regions is providing real-world evidence for this outlook.
Regional Weather: Southeast Drought Eases, Southwest Hit by Extremes
The Southeast U.S. received widespread thunderstorms this week, with cumulative rainfall of 2 to 4 inches in south-central Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. The U.S. Drought Monitor reported that these rains significantly reduced drought coverage and severity, benefiting cotton plants now entering squaring and early boll-setting stages. NASS data shows Alabama cotton at 40% squaring and Georgia at 30%, with early-planted fields gradually moving into boll setting. Northern areas like the Carolinas and Virginia saw only 0.5–1 inch of rain and remain broadly dry, with squaring progress ranging from 17% to 31%.
The Southwest tells a different story. East Texas cleared after early showers, but soils remained excessively wet, hindering field work. Some fields suffered from runoff and waterlogging. More alarmingly, the High Plains region of Texas experienced severe thunderstorms on June 23, with tornadoes and hail ranging from golf ball to tennis ball size hitting some cotton fields. Local authorities have initiated damage assessments; some dryland cotton has been insured and written off, with plans to replant with grain sorghum. Industry sources report heavy damage to cotton plants, with multiple fields facing total loss.
In South Texas's Coastal Bend, cumulative rainfall over the past 60 days has exceeded 20 inches, significantly boosting depleted reservoir levels such as Lake Corpus Christi. However, many cotton fields are saturated with standing water in furrows. Some plants show yellowing leaves, though most fields remain on track. Farmers are using drones for pest and weed control.
Downstream Demand: Thin Inquiry Reflects Global Caution
Spot trading was generally light. In the Southeast, supply, demand, and grower offerings were all moderate, with average prices weak. The Southwest was even quieter: in East/South Texas, supply and grower offerings were very scarce, demand was weak, and average prices held steady. Overseas mill inquiry was thin, limited mainly to Mexico, Peru, and Turkey. The same pattern held in West Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma, where grower forward contracting interest was moderate and overseas inquiry similarly concentrated on those three countries.
This regional demand structure reflects global textile buyers' cautious procurement strategy: amid high macroeconomic uncertainty, they prefer to lock in supplies from geographically close or trade-agreement-favored origins, avoiding long-haul, high-freight US cotton. ICE December cotton futures settled Thursday at 76.97 cents/lb, up 0.71 cents from the previous day, but still range-bound and unable to break out.
Price Outlook: Near-Term Pressure, Crop Loss Expectations Provide Floor
In summary, the US cotton market faces multiple crosscurrents: ample old-crop carryover but significant downside risk to new-crop production due to extreme weather; weak downstream demand but strong early-season sales data; narrow futures trading range but weakening spot basis. In the near term, as Northern Hemisphere new crop gradually comes to market, supply pressure may push spot prices lower. However, actual production losses from Texas tornadoes and excessive rainfall will become clearer in the coming weeks, potentially reigniting bullish sentiment.
For buyers, the current spot price near 70 cents/lb may represent a low-entry zone, but close attention should be paid to the August USDA Supply & Demand report for any production adjustment. For foreign trade companies, RMB exchange rate fluctuations and the pace of Southeast Asian spinning capacity recovery will be key variables affecting actual import costs.