The upstream raw material prices in the textile industry chain are experiencing an unexpected 'cooling down'. In the last week of June, industry monitoring data showed that among 17 major textile bulk commodities, 13 saw prices decline week-on-week, with acrylonitrile and PTA falling by 6.92% and 5.10% respectively, leading the entire sector. Meanwhile, cotton yarn 21S and 32S bucked the trend, rising slightly by 0.14% and 0.10%, making them the only two gainers. This extreme divergence is sending complex supply-demand signals to the market.
Upstream raw materials under pressure
The sharp drops in acrylonitrile and PTA are not isolated events. The overall average weekly change for the textile sector was -1.65%, with commodities falling more than 5% accounting for 11.8% of the monitored items. Looking at sub-categories, the entire polyester filament series weakened: polyester POY, DTY, and FDY fell by 2.36%, 2.60%, and 1.62% respectively; polyester staple fiber dropped 0.91%; and polyester yarn declined 1.79%. The nylon series also suffered, with nylon POY, FDY, and DTY falling between 0.88% and 1.21%. Although viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn prices remained flat, their year-on-year increases of 9.06% and 3.17% indicate strong cost support.
The core driver of this decline comes from the petrochemical raw material end. PTA is the direct raw material for polyester, and its sharp price drop directly lowered the cost anchor for the polyester series. Acrylonitrile, a key raw material for acrylic and some carbon fibers, recorded a weekly decline of 6.92%, reflecting weak demand or inventory buildup in the downstream acrylic industry. For buyers of polyester and nylon fabrics, this means procurement costs may drop significantly in the short term, but price volatility risks are also magnified.
The logic behind cotton yarn's resilience
Against the backdrop of overall decline, cotton yarn 21S and 32S rose to 23,400 yuan/ton and 24,725 yuan/ton respectively, with year-on-year increases of 7.50% and 6.57%. This phenomenon contrasts with the trend of raw cotton prices, which fell 1.23% to 17,417.67 yuan/ton this week. Cotton yarn's 'resilience' stems from two aspects: first, downstream weaving demand for cotton yarn is relatively rigid, especially for 21S and 32S as regular items with stable orders in denim and home textiles; second, cotton spinning mills, under pressure from high-cost raw cotton inventories, are reluctant to cut prices despite falling raw material costs.
Notably, raw silk fell 1.99% to 428,100 yuan/ton this week, with a year-on-year decline of 10.12%, making it the only commodity in the sector with a negative year-on-year change. This reflects persistently weak end-consumer demand for silk products and ongoing destocking pressure in the cocoon-silk industry chain. The continuous decline in raw silk prices, often lagging behind the macroeconomic cycle, may signal that demand contraction in the high-end textile consumption sector has not yet bottomed out.
Impact on downstream procurement and inventory strategies
The current sharp fluctuations in raw material prices place higher demands on textile enterprises' procurement rhythm and inventory management. For weaving and dyeing mills that primarily use polyester and nylon, a short-term restocking window may open, but they must be cautious about further price declines. For cotton textile enterprises, while cotton yarn prices remain firm and raw cotton weakens, spinning profit margins are expanding. However, if downstream orders cannot be sustained, this profit improvement may be temporary.
From a regional industry belt perspective, polyester traders in the Shengze area have shown a stronger willingness to sell this week, with some companies cutting prices to reduce inventory. In contrast, cotton yarn traders in Keqiao are more cautious, mostly holding prices steady and waiting. This regional behavioral difference essentially reflects divergent expectations on the price trends of different raw materials.