Night session closing data on June 26 shows mixed performance across major futures contracts, sending divergent signals for textile raw materials. Cotton yarn main contract 2609 closed at 22,210 points, up 0.52%; cotton 2609 followed suit, closing at 15,730 points, up 0.32%. In contrast, the polyester chain showed weakness: staple fiber 2608 fell 0.14% to 6,936 points, bottle-grade chip 2609 dropped 0.21% to 6,620 points, while PTA 2609 edged up 0.04% to 5,468 points, essentially flat.
Cotton Complex Strengthens: Supply Concerns and Demand Resilience The simultaneous rise in cotton yarn and cotton is mainly supported by supply-side expectations. Xinjiang cotton is entering a critical growth period, making the market highly sensitive to weather factors. Meanwhile, downstream weaving mills are operating at moderate rates, but cotton yarn inventories remain relatively low, prompting some traders to restock. The cotton price of 15,730 points sits in the middle-to-upper range of the year, reflecting cautious optimism about future supply-demand balance.
For spinners, the 0.52% rise in cotton yarn means a slight expansion in profit margins. But sustainability hinges on the recovery pace of end-use garment orders. Currently, the domestic market is stable, while export orders face uncertainties from freight rate volatility and geopolitical factors.
Polyester Chain Under Pressure: Staple Fiber and Bottle Chip Weaken, PTA Stabilizes The decline in staple fiber and bottle-grade chip directly reflects weak downstream demand. Staple fiber 2608 fell to 6,936 points, approaching previous lows, indicating persistent destocking pressure in the polyester staple fiber market. Bottle chip fell more sharply, down 0.21% to 6,620 points, suggesting that the peak seasonal demand from beverage packaging has passed, with limited new orders.
PTA's marginal gain of 0.04% to 5,468 points is more of a cost-side support. International crude oil prices have been trading in a narrow range recently, and PX prices remain relatively firm, preventing a significant drop in PTA costs. However, PTA's own supply-demand dynamics are not pronounced, with social inventories at moderate levels and plant maintenance and restarts alternating. The stabilization of PTA provides a 'floor anchor' for the polyester chain but is insufficient to drive a broad rebound.
Implications for the Supply Chain - **For cotton textile mills**: Cotton prices have short-term support, but chasing rallies is not advisable. Use futures tools to lock in raw material costs, especially watch Xinjiang weather impacts on far-month contracts. - **For polyester plants**: Weak staple fiber and bottle chip prices may prompt production cuts to support prices. PTA's stabilization offers a cost floor, but without a clear demand recovery, price rebound potential is limited. - **For weaving and apparel buyers**: Current raw material prices are relatively low, presenting a good window for signing long-term orders. The widening price gap between cotton yarn and polyester staple fiber allows consideration of adjusting blend ratios in fabric formulations to optimize costs.
Outlook: Structural Opportunities in Off-Season Overall, the June 26 night session data reveals a structural pattern of 'cotton strong, polyester weak.' The cotton complex is driven by supply-side narratives, while the polyester chain relies more on demand recovery. The industry is currently in a traditional off-season, but the market has begun pricing in expectations for the 'golden September and silver October' peak season.
For industry participants, focusing on daily price moves is less important than tracking trend sustainability. Whether cotton can hold above 15,700 points and whether staple fiber can find effective support around 6,900 points will be key to judging the second-half-year direction. Companies are advised to maintain flexible inventory management, hedge with futures tools, and closely monitor the ordering pace of end garment brands.