In the first four months of 2026, China's textile industry presented a mixed performance: the industrial value-added growth rate of enterprises above the designated size slowed by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while apparel retail sales recorded a 3.8% increase. This contrast outlines the complex landscape of diverging domestic demand and export resilience.
Domestic Market: Consumption Recovers but Momentum Weakens
According to public data from the National Bureau of Statistics, retail sales of apparel products at units above the designated size grew 3.8% year-on-year in Jan-Apr, 1.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year. This indicates that terminal consumption has not stalled, especially driven by online channels and lower-tier markets. However, another signal warrants caution: fixed-asset investment in the industry grew only 1.5%, down 2.3 percentage points from last year. The low willingness to expand capacity suggests cautious expectations among enterprises, with inventory destocking pressure not fully eased.
Meanwhile, revenue of enterprises above the designated size increased 2.1%, but total profit grew only 0.7%, squeezing profit margins. Price transmission from upstream chemical fiber to downstream garment manufacturing faces resistance at the terminal end due to bargaining power.
Export Side: Resilience with Structural Shifts
Customs statistics show that China's textile and apparel exports in Jan-Apr 2026 grew 4.5% year-on-year, with apparel exports outpacing textiles. This growth does not come from a full recovery in traditional markets. Exports to ASEAN surged 12.3%, while those to the EU and the US grew 2.8% and 1.5%, respectively. The return of orders from Southeast Asia partially compensates for the share lost due to supply chain shifts, but unit price increases remain limited.
Notably, chemical fiber output grew 5.9%, 1.8 percentage points lower than last year. This directly correlates with slower order rhythms in downstream grey fabric and fabric sectors. Some weaving enterprises reported that since late April, the sustainability of domestic orders has been significantly weaker than that of foreign orders.
Industry Transmission: Stress Test from Raw Materials to End Products
From a supply chain perspective, the data reveals three key transmission nodes. First, cotton and viscose staple fiber prices rose about 3%-5% cumulatively in Jan-Apr, but yarn prices increased only 1.2%, squeezing spinning margins. Second, grey fabric inventory days rose from 28 days at the beginning of the year to 32 days by end-April, prompting weaving enterprises to lower operating rates. Third, printing and dyeing order schedules shortened, with some small and medium-sized dyeing mills implementing rotation rest due to insufficient orders.
This means that the growth in terminal retail has not effectively translated into higher capacity utilization in mid- and upstream sectors. Brands and retailers are more conservative in inventory management, shortening order cycles and reducing batch sizes, demanding higher quick-response capabilities from suppliers.
Regional Divergence: Cluster Performances Differ
By region, the sentiment indices of Keqiao and Shengze fabric clusters diverged in April. The Keqiao index edged up 0.3 percentage points, supported by foreign trade orders; the Shengze index fell 0.7 percentage points, dragged by weak domestic orders. Nantong home textile cluster saw bed linen exports grow 6.5%, but domestic channel growth slowed to 2.1%.
This divergence reflects differences in market structure: clusters dependent on foreign trade benefit from incremental demand in ASEAN and Belt and Road markets, while those heavily reliant on domestic demand face challenges from sluggish consumer confidence recovery.