Chemical Fiber Raw Materials Accelerate Decline, Cotton Yarn Rises Slightly: Textile Raw Material Market Divergence Intensifies

The textile raw material market showed a clear divergence in the final week of June 2026. According to industry data, 13 out of 17 monitored textile bulk commodities posted week-on-week price declines, with an average weekly drop of 1.65%. The chemical fiber sector bore the brunt of the downturn, while cotton yarn demonstrated rare resilience.

Chemical Fiber Raw Materials: Caught Between Cost Collapse and Weak Demand

Acrylonitrile led the decline with a 6.92% weekly drop, falling from 10,833 yuan/ton to 10,083 yuan/ton. PTA followed closely, down 5.10% from 6,042 yuan/ton to 5,734 yuan/ton. These two raw materials directly dragged down the entire polyester chain. Polyester filament yarns weakened across the board: POY down 2.36%, DTY down 2.60%, and FDY down 1.62%. Polyester staple fiber fell 0.91%, and polyester yarn dropped 1.79%. This synchronized decline in both raw materials and yarns suggests cost-side collapse is transmitting downstream, rather than a simple margin squeeze. For polyester mills, this is a clear signal of destocking pressure. Nylon series also suffered: POY down 1.09%, FDY down 1.21%, and DTY down 0.88%. Spandex, though declining only 0.56%, is gradually losing its earlier 21% year-on-year premium. Notably, viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn prices stabilized this week, but their year-on-year gains of 9.06% and 3.17% indicate unresolved upstream cost pressures.

Cotton Yarn's Modest Rise: Cost Support and Just-in-Time Procurement

In a broadly falling market, the 0.14% and 0.10% gains in cotton yarn 21S and 32S stand out. The underlying reason lies in relatively firm cotton costs: although cotton lint fell 1.23% this week, its year-on-year increase remains at 16.08%, providing strong support for cotton yarn prices. Downstream demand also played a role. The transition from summer orders to autumn/winter stocking has triggered some just-in-time procurement among weavers. This cautious 'buy-on-dip' mentality provides temporary support for cotton yarn.

Raw Silk Divergence: Year-on-Year Loss Exceeds 10%

Raw silk dropped 1.99% to 428,100 yuan/ton, with its year-on-year loss widening to 10.12%—the worst performance among all monitored items. This reflects persistent weakness in silk end-consumer markets and relatively ample silkworm cocoon supply. For the export-dependent silk industry, overseas demand uncertainty remains the primary risk.

Industry Outlook: Divergence Likely to Persist into Q3

The current market is characterized by a three-layer pattern: weak chemical fibers, stable cotton yarns, and cold raw silk. The chemical fiber decline is driven by falling upstream crude oil and PX prices, coupled with lower downstream weaving mill operating rates reducing buying interest. PTA, as the 'bellwether' of the polyester chain, will directly influence polyester product pricing. For buyers, current chemical fiber prices are at cyclical lows, but given inventory digestion cycles, further downside is possible. Cotton yarn has support, but if cotton prices weaken further, catch-up declines cannot be ruled out.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Adopt a 'just-in-time, small-lot, multiple-batch' strategy for chemical fibers (polyester, nylon, acrylonitrile) to avoid inventory losses in a downtrend. - Increase spot purchases of cotton yarn (21S, 32S) to lock in relatively low costs before any potential rebound. - Maintain low raw silk inventory unless export orders show clear recovery signs.

For Weaving/Dyeing Mills - Polyester grey fabric processing margins may improve due to falling raw material costs, but watch for finished goods inventory devaluation and accelerate turnover. - Increase the cotton cost weighting in pricing for cotton-based orders to hedge against potential cotton yarn volatility. - Monitor PTA futures; if they break below 5,500 yuan/ton, consider negotiating short-term price protection agreements with upstream suppliers.