The daily average number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz remains below 60% of pre-conflict levels, while 162 fully laden tankers carrying approximately 120 million barrels of crude and refined products remain stranded—this is the maritime reality revealed by industry data as of June 23. Following the 60-day temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, markets anticipated a rapid release of backlogged crude, but the pace of shipping recovery has proven far slower than expected.
Geopolitical Cooling and Oil Price Correction: Short-Term Sentiment, Not Fundamental Reversal
On June 23, international crude oil markets weakened simultaneously: WTI closed at $73.21/barrel and Brent at $76.85/barrel, each declining about 1%. Over the entire month of June, both benchmarks recorded cumulative drops of nearly 16%. This reflects market pricing of anticipated supply recovery from the Strait's reopening, rapidly unwinding the geopolitical risk premium accumulated since the conflict began.
However, multiple institutional analysts caution that this decline is more about short-term sentiment release than a fundamental reversal. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Lee Klaskow noted that the 60-day temporary ceasefire is inherently unstable, with deep-rooted disagreements among Middle Eastern parties unresolved. From a pricing logic perspective, the recent oil price drop has already priced in the short-term navigation recovery gains. Should the Strait experience renewed incidents such as ship attacks or channel blockades, risk premiums will quickly re-emerge, potentially triggering a phase of oil price rebound.
Tanker Backlogs and 'Dark Ships': Real Congestion Underestimated
As of June 23, industry data shows 162 fully laden crude oil tankers with trackable AIS signals stranded in and around the Strait, carrying approximately 120 million barrels of crude and refined products. More critically, this tally excludes 'dark ships' that have voluntarily turned off their positioning signals to avoid tracking—many Iranian-linked tankers and smaller product tankers have chosen to remain invisible. This means the actual number of stranded vessels and accumulated oil volumes is higher than reported.
Shipowners are adopting a cautious, exploratory approach rather than large-scale concentrated transit: they are waiting for further confirmation of the Strait's safety environment while assessing the combined costs of insurance, demurrage, and rerouting. This 'can go but dare not, want to go but queue up' congestion stalemate will take time to clear the months of accumulated capacity.
High War Risk Premiums: Core Obstacle to Shipping Recovery
The surge in insurance costs due to geopolitical conflict is the central pain point preventing shipowners from fully returning to the Hormuz route. Even with the situation easing, premium rates remain far above pre-conflict norms. Current war risk insurance rates along the Strait, though down from conflict peaks, still hover around 1% of vessel hull value—a tenfold increase from the pre-conflict rate of 0.1%.
For a typical Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC), a single transit through the Strait of Hormuz now carries a war risk premium of up to $2 million, severely eroding shipping profits. This forces shipowners to adopt conservative operational strategies: some smaller operators choose to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, increasing voyage length and fuel and labor costs; major shipping lines deploy only a few vessels on trial runs, unwilling to commit large-scale capacity to the Persian Gulf.
As long as war risk premiums fail to normalize, the Strait's shipping efficiency cannot return to pre-conflict levels, and global crude oil transportation turnover will remain compromised.