On June 26, 2026, polyester FDY 150D/96F semi-dull prices across major Zhejiang producers showed an unusually narrow range of 8,500 to 8,750 yuan per ton, a spread of just 250 yuan. While the numbers seem modest, they reveal a fragile equilibrium in the polyester supply chain—one where upstream cost support and downstream demand weakness are locked in a delicate balance.

The Logic Behind the Price Band

The reported prices come from Zhejiang's core production bases in Hangzhou, Shaoxing, and Tongxiang, involving key players like Rongsheng Petrochemical, Tongkun Group, and Tiansheng Chemical Fiber. The low end at 8,500 yuan comes from Rongsheng and Juxing, while Tongkun leads at 8,750 yuan. This spread reflects differences in raw material self-sufficiency, capacity utilization, and customer mix.

Shaoxing's generally lower prices correlate with local weaving clusters' operating rates. As China's largest chemical fiber fabric base, Shaoxing weavers face order divergence: standard greige goods are sluggish, while differentiated products command premiums. Tiansheng's 8,710 yuan and Jiabao's 8,510 yuan represent these two demand structures.

Cost Support vs. Weak Demand

On the raw material side, PTA and MEG prices remained range-bound in June, offering no clear cost push for FDY. Yet FDY producers did not cut prices below 8,500 yuan, suggesting the industry is near breakeven. For commodity-grade 150D/96F, price elasticity is low—once below cost, mills prefer to cut output rather than compete on price.

Downstream weaving markets are more pessimistic. June is traditionally a slow season, with apparel brands slowing orders, leading to greige goods inventory buildup. Weavers adopt a hand-to-mouth procurement strategy, avoiding bulk purchases. This demand restraint is why FDY prices cannot break above 8,750 yuan.

Inventory Cycle Signals

Notably, no aggressive discounting appeared in these quotes. Even in the off-season, producers maintained relatively firm pricing, suggesting that after months of destocking, FDY social inventory has returned to healthy levels. If downstream orders improve marginally in July, prices could see a small rebound.

For exporters, the current price band limits competitiveness. Southeast Asian buyers are already showing hesitation at 8,500 yuan, preferring to wait for lower prices or switch to alternatives.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - The 8,500-8,750 yuan range is suitable for small replenishment orders; avoid large stockpiling due to weak seasonal demand. - Focus on Shaoxing low-end quotes; Rongsheng and Juxing's 8,500 yuan may be a short-term floor. - When negotiating with Tiansheng or other mid-high price mills, seek payment term flexibility rather than price cuts.

For Exporters - Add $80-100/ton to FOB quotes to cover domestic price volatility. - Southeast Asian markets are price-sensitive at 8,500 yuan; promote differentiated FDY variants (e.g., cationic, dope-dyed) to avoid price wars. - Monitor mid-July PTA maintenance plans; any raw material shock could trigger rapid FDY price hikes—lock in volumes with producers in advance.

资料来源:中国纺织报查看原始资料
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