The average daily number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz remains below 60% of pre-conflict levels, yet the number of stranded tankers has hit a new high. As of June 23, 162 laden crude oil tankers with AIS signals were stuck in and around the strait, carrying approximately 120 million barrels of oil—and this excludes the many 'dark ships' that have turned off their positioning systems. The true backlog is almost certainly larger.
After the 60-day temporary ceasefire agreement took effect, the market expected a rapid release of pent-up crude, but the reality is 'able but unwilling to sail, waiting in line to go.' Shipowners are adopting a cautious, trial approach rather than large-scale concentrated transit, directly prolonging the congestion stalemate.
Oil Price Plunge: Sentiment Repair, Not Fundamental Reversal
The international crude market reacted swiftly to the ceasefire news. On June 23, WTI crude settled at $73.21/barrel and Brent at $76.85/barrel, both down about 1% on the day; over the entire month of June, both benchmarks fell nearly 16%. The geopolitical risk premium accumulated since the conflict began is rapidly deflating.
However, multiple institutional analysts explicitly warn that this decline is more a short-term sentiment release. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Lee Klaskow notes that the 60-day temporary ceasefire is highly unstable, with fundamental differences among Middle Eastern parties unresolved. Any new incident—such as attacks on vessels, channel controls, or diplomatic escalation—could halt the outflow of stranded crude again and quickly rebuild risk premiums.
For the textile and chemical fiber industry, lower crude prices mean short-term cost relief for raw materials like PTA and MEG, but buyers should not extrapolate this trend into the medium term. Geopolitical reversals could reverse price direction at any time.
War Risk Premiums: The 'Invisible Ceiling' on Shipping Recovery
Even with eased tensions, the biggest obstacle for shipowners returning to the Hormuz route remains insurance costs. Current war risk insurance rates in the strait, while down from conflict peaks, remain at about 1% of vessel value—a tenfold increase from the pre-conflict rate of 0.1%.
For a typical Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC), a single transit of the Strait of Hormuz costs up to $2 million in war risk premiums. This huge expense severely erodes shipping profits, leading to conservative operational strategies: some small and medium shipowners opt to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, increasing voyage length and fuel/labor costs; major shipping firms deploy only a few vessels for trial transits, unwilling to commit large capacity to the Persian Gulf.
As long as war risk premiums fail to return to normal levels, Hormuz shipping will not regain pre-conflict efficiency, and global crude transport turnover will remain impaired. This poses a hidden risk to textile chemical fiber raw material supply chains that depend on imported crude.
Industrial Impact: Crude Price Pass-Through and Procurement Timing
The short-term oil price dip from the ceasefire is positive for the textile and chemical fiber industry, but two variables need attention: first, geopolitical risk reversal could push prices back up at any time; second, unresolved shipping congestion means raw material arrival times could be extended if tensions re-escalate.
Current PTA and MEG prices have already weakened with crude, but downstream weaving mills are not rushing to buy. The reason: end-use garment orders have not yet rebounded significantly, and uncertainty over the Middle East keeps most companies in a wait-and-see mode.
Historical experience suggests that raw material price fluctuations from geopolitical conflicts typically take one to two months to fully transmit downstream. Textile companies should use the current window to lock in some forward raw material orders, but avoid excessive stockpiling.