Pakistani Yarn Breaks the Mold: Restructuring of the Open-End Spinning Market and New Logic for Low-Count Yarn Imports

China's total cotton yarn imports fell 14% month-on-month in May 2026, but Pakistani yarn exports to China surged over 80% year-on-year. This asymmetry reveals a structural shift in the low-count yarn market as traditional suppliers like Vietnam and India lose ground.

Market Share Reshuffling: Vietnam and India Slow, Pakistan Fills the Gap

May imports totaled about 172,200 tons, down 14.03% from April but up 71.75% year-on-year. Vietnam supplied 82,050 tons (-11.83% MoM), India 22,430 tons (-29.38% MoM). Their combined share slipped from over 60% earlier this year to about 60.65%. In contrast, Pakistani yarn arrivals hit 21,310 tons, up 0.01% MoM and 80.36% YoY.

Feedback from weaving hubs in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong indicates that Pakistani yarn's stable cotton blending and shorter shipping times are key factors replacing Vietnamese open-end yarn. A Zhejiang-based textile trading company noted that the continued depreciation of the Pakistani rupee has strengthened mill export incentives, while improved energy supply in Pakistan has boosted mill operating rates, further expanding export capacity.

Price Trends: Open-End Corrects, Siro Spun Holds Firm

Open-end yarn faces dual pressure: the winding down of Southeast Asian order transfers and the absence of domestic winter-spring orders have slowed inquiry and transaction activity for bonded and forward cargo. FOB/CNF/CIF quotes from Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India continue to edge lower. Meanwhile, Pakistani 8S-21S siro spun yarn shipments remain resilient, reflecting differentiated demand for low-count yarns.

Pakistani cotton prices fell sharply after mid-June, and with the rupee's expected long-term depreciation, importers are waiting for a better buying window. This suggests that Pakistani yarn's cost advantage could widen further in the next 1-2 months, intensifying substitution pressure on Vietnamese and Indian open-end products.

Geopolitics and Currency: Twin Engines of Pakistani Yarn's Rise

Industry analysis points to three drivers:
- Geopolitical conflicts (U.S.-Israel-Iran) have redirected some low-count, low-margin textile orders from Southeast Asia back to China, with Pakistani yarn as the primary carrier.
- The Pakistani rupee's sustained depreciation directly lowers dollar-denominated yarn export costs.
- Weak domestic demand in Pakistan pushes mills to export more, while the stable China-Pakistan trade corridor for cotton yarn and fabric facilitates smooth movement.

Additionally, expectations of U.S. tariff actions under Section 301 in July are dampening forward cargo interest, shifting demand toward spot and near-term Pakistani yarn.

Practical Advice

For Buyers - Focus on forward contracts for Pakistani 8S-21S siro spun yarn; cost advantages are clear during the rupee depreciation cycle. - Hold off on Vietnamese open-end replenishment until the July tariff policy is clarified, as corrections may not be complete. - Maintain a wait-and-see approach for Indian yarn; its largest MoM decline suggests weak near-term recovery.

For Foreign Trade Firms - Explore direct sourcing or long-term framework agreements with Pakistani mills to reduce intermediary volatility. - Monitor Pakistani cotton prices and energy supply as leading indicators for export quote turning points. - Stay cautious on the sustainability of Southeast Asian order transfers to avoid open-end inventory buildup during the wind-down phase.