The polyester filament market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is showing a clear divergence: most specifications are flat, but some medium-denier varieties have started to soften. According to public quotations from the Wangjiangjing market on June 28, FDY 100D/72F dropped 100 yuan/ton to 9,000 yuan/ton over three days, and 150D/36F fell 100 yuan to 8,600 yuan/ton, while FDY 75D/144F and DTY 150D/144F held steady. This 'structural dip' rather than a broad decline indicates the market is undergoing a refined supply-demand rebalance rather than a collapse.
Industry Logic Behind Price Divergence
Looking at the price list, fine-denier FDY 50D and 68D remained unchanged, POY series were flat, but FDY 100D/72F and 150D/36F were the only two declining items. This reflects selective purchasing by downstream weavers. FDY 75D/144F, a common feedstock for imitation silk and peach-skin fabrics, has stronger price support due to its wide application and faster inventory turnover. In contrast, 100D/72F and 150D/36F are mainly used in low-value-added products like linings and luggage fabrics, making them more sensitive to fluctuations in export orders.
Industry data shows polyester plant inventories have climbed to 15-20 days, higher than last year. Weak upstream PTA and MEG prices offer no cost support. If terminal orders fail to materialize in early July, polyester filament prices may face broader downward pressure, especially for slow-moving, commoditized specifications.
Weaving Hub Reactions and Buyer Psychology
Wangjiangjing, a key polyester filament distribution hub, serves as a barometer for Jiangsu-Zhejiang weavers. Trading volumes this week shrank further from last week, with weavers adopting a 'hand-to-mouth' strategy. This wait-and-see attitude is rational: upstream raw materials are still bottoming out, and downstream apparel brands are slowing order placements, prompting grey fabric traders to reduce their own inventories.
Notably, the resilience of FDY 75D/144F reflects rigid demand in specific segments, such as high-density nylon taffeta. This suggests not all specifications can be delayed; buyers should differentiate based on product mix.
Outlook and Risk Factors
Based on current inventory and margin conditions across the chain, the polyester filament market will likely remain in a 'weak consolidation' phase through early July. Downside triggers include:
- A surprise drop in crude oil or PX prices, directly lowering polyester costs;
- Weavers reducing output due to high-temperature power cuts or weak orders, dampening feedstock demand;
- Polyester plants initiating price cuts to relieve inventory pressure.
Conversely, if 'Christmas orders' start picking up in mid-to-late July, DTY and medium-denier FDY grades could rebound first. Thus, the current market is not a one-way bearish scenario but a typical 'left-side trading' window where risk and opportunity coexist.