Acrylonitrile Plunges 6.9%: Raw Material Side Triggers New Pricing Reshuffle in Textile

In the final week of June 2026, the textile bulk commodity market experienced a notable price correction. Among 17 monitored varieties, 13 fell week-on-week, with two dropping over 5%, pushing the sector's average decline to 1.65%. Behind these figures lies a resonance between upstream cost pass-through and shrinking downstream demand, with the impact spreading from chemical fiber raw materials to yarns and fabrics.

Raw Material Side: Acrylonitrile and PTA Lead the Decline, Cost Support Collapses

The steepest decline was seen in acrylonitrile, which plunged 6.92% from 10,833 yuan/ton to 10,083 yuan/ton, narrowing its year-on-year gain to 25%. This sharp drop is not isolated—weaker upstream propylene prices and low operating rates in downstream acrylic fiber and ABS resin sectors jointly depressed buying interest. More critically, PTA plummeted 5.10% to 5,734 yuan/ton, directly undermining the cost anchor for polyester filament and staple fiber.

The logic behind PTA's decline is clearer: volatile international crude oil prices weakened support from PX (paraxylene), while domestic PTA plant operating rates remained high, pushing social inventories to year-high levels. This suggests PTA's drop is not a short-term adjustment but a sustained pressure release from supply-demand imbalance. For the polyester chain, the cost 'foundation' is loosening.

Chemical Fiber Chain: Polyester All Down, Nylon Follows, Inventory Pressure Transmits

Polyester series bore the brunt this week. POY fell 2.36%, DTY 2.60%, FDY 1.62%, staple fiber 0.91%, and yarn 1.79%. The magnitude of decline increases closer to the raw material end, indicating cost collapse is transmitting step by step along the chain. POY dropped 200 yuan/ton intra-week, approaching cash cost lines for some producers.

Nylon also suffered: POY down 1.09%, DTY 0.88%, FDY 1.21%. The raw material caprolactam weakened in tandem, but with a milder decline, reflecting less acute supply-demand tension in the nylon chain. Spandex edged down 0.56% but still showed a 21.09% year-on-year gain, indicating a gradual correction from earlier overvaluation.

For chemical fiber mills, the outlook is challenging: rapid raw material price drops trigger a 'buy on rising, not falling' psychology among downstream weavers, slowing procurement and forcing inventory accumulation. If PTA and acrylonitrile continue downward, chemical fiber prices have further room to fall.

Cotton Spinning: Cotton Yarn Rises Modestly, But Raw Cotton Buckles

Amid the broad slump, cotton yarn 21S and 32S rose 0.14% and 0.10% respectively, becoming the only two gainers of the week. This contrasts sharply with raw cotton's 1.23% drop to 17,417 yuan/ton, with year-on-year gain narrowing to 16.08%.

The divergence between cotton yarn and raw cotton reveals a structural contradiction: upstream cotton supply is ample (new crop expectations, increased import arrivals), but mid-stream spinners, supported by existing orders and low inventories, maintain firm yarn quotes. This 'cost down, product stable' situation is unsustainable—if raw cotton continues weakening, spinners' price-holding resolve will eventually break under downstream pressure. Viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn held flat at 14,200 yuan/ton and 17,925 yuan/ton respectively, with year-on-year gains of 3%-9%, staying in a relatively stable range but lacking upward momentum.

Raw Silk Deep Dive: Silk Sector Faces Dual Export and Consumption Pressure

Raw silk fell 1.99% to 428,100 yuan/ton, with year-on-year decline widening to 10.12%—the only variety in the textile sector with a negative year-on-year figure. This persistent weakness reflects long-term challenges in the silk chain: sluggish international demand (slowing luxury consumption in Europe and the US) and stable domestic cocoon supply without fresh catalysts. For silk processors, lower raw material costs reduce procurement expense, but insufficient terminal orders mean 'price cuts can't boost volume', elongating inventory turnover days.

Trend Assessment and Industry Impact

This week's price data sends several key signals:

First, divergence between chemical fiber and cotton spinning is intensifying. Chemical fiber, constrained by petrochemical raw material cycles, faces sustained downward pressure; cotton spinning, with relatively independent supply-demand dynamics, shows better resilience, but raw cotton's weakening may gradually transmit to yarn.

Second, industry profit is shifting from raw material to midstream/downstream. The sharp drops in acrylonitrile and PTA mean significantly lower raw material costs for downstream acrylic yarn and polyester fabric producers. If terminal prices hold, these segments' gross margins will improve temporarily.

Third, procurement strategies need to shift from 'stockpiling for price hikes' to 'demand-based replenishment'. In a downward price channel, holding excessive raw material inventory risks asset impairment. Weaving mills and fabric traders should shorten procurement cycles and use spot market flexibility to control costs.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - For chemical fiber raw materials (polyester, nylon, spandex), adopt a small-lot, high-frequency procurement strategy to avoid locking long-term contracts in a falling market. Monitor PTA and acrylonitrile futures; if they break key support levels, wait for lower entry points. - Cotton yarn prices are currently firm, but raw cotton costs are declining. Expect a potential catch-down in cotton yarn within 2-3 weeks. Buyers should defer large orders and maintain only 15-20 days of safety stock. - Raw silk is in a deep year-on-year decline, offering a price-locking window for silk fabric buyers. However, confirm terminal order certainty before stockpiling for low prices.

For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Build price fluctuation buffers into export quotations. With chemical fiber raw materials falling over 2% weekly, quoting at week-start prices could result in 3-5% cost differences by shipment. Incorporate raw material price linkage clauses or adopt short-term floating pricing mechanisms in contracts. - Monitor the currency-oil linkage. PTA and acrylonitrile are highly correlated with international oil prices. If yuan exchange rate volatility combines with oil declines, export cost advantages may amplify, but also invite customer price pressure. Establish regular price communication with clients, proactively sharing raw material trend data. - Silk exporters should lock in raw materials during the low-price period for raw silk, while expanding into functional silk or differentiated products to avoid the pure raw silk price war trap.