The textile raw material market exhibited a rare divergence in late Q2 2026. According to industry public data, in the 25th week (June 22-26), only cotton yarn 21S and 32S posted gains of 0.14% and 0.10% among 17 monitored bulk commodities, while 13 products declined. Acrylonitrile fell 6.92% week-on-week, PTA dropped 5.10%, and polyester DTY followed with a 2.60% loss. The overall sector average fell 1.65%, the largest single-week decline in three months.
Upstream Raw Materials Accelerate Downward, Cost Support Logic Fails
The sharp declines in acrylonitrile and PTA are not isolated. Acrylonitrile fell from 10,833 yuan/ton to 10,083 yuan/ton within the week, with year-on-year gains narrowing to 25%. PTA broke below 5,800 yuan/ton, closing at 5,734 yuan/ton. Together, these two materials account for over 30% of chemical fiber raw material costs, dragging down the entire polyester and nylon product range. Polyester POY, FDY, DTY, and staple fiber all fell between 0.91% and 2.60%. Nylon DTY, POY, and FDY also weakened, with weekly losses ranging from 0.88% to 1.21%.
The core driver is the dual pressure from new capacity coming online and sluggish downstream orders. New PTA and acrylonitrile capacity reached production in Q2, while end-user textile and apparel export growth slowed, forcing intermediate polyester and nylon mills to destock at lower prices. For weaving factories, falling raw material costs should theoretically ease cost pressure, but finished fabric prices have also dropped, leaving actual margins unchanged.
Cotton Yarn Rises Against the Trend: Structural Support from Supply-Demand Balance
In contrast to the chemical fiber chain's collapse, cotton yarn 21S and 32S rose 0.14% and 0.10%, closing at 23,400 yuan/ton and 24,725 yuan/ton, with year-on-year gains of 7.50% and 6.57%. This is not driven by demand surge but by cost transmission from cotton. Although cotton prices fell 1.23%, cotton yarn prices remained resilient, indicating that mills maintained pricing power by adjusting operating rates and product mix.
From industrial cluster feedback, major cotton yarn production areas in Shandong and Henan are operating at around 70% capacity, prioritizing consumption of high-cost cotton inventory, and new order quotes remain firm. Viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn prices were flat, while spandex edged down 0.56%, indicating a balanced supply-demand in regenerated cellulose fiber. Raw silk fell 1.99%, with year-on-year decline of 10.12%, signaling a deep adjustment in the silk chain.
Regional Industrial Cluster Transmission: Chemical Fiber Hubs Under Pressure, Cotton Spinning Relatively Stable
The impact of falling chemical fiber raw materials varies by cluster. Polyester hubs in Xiaoshan and Shaoxing, Zhejiang, face dual pressure from falling raw material and finished product prices, with inventory turnover extending to over 25 days. Polyester filament weaving mills in Shengze, Jiangsu, are reducing operating rates, with some small and medium enterprises implementing production curbs.
In contrast, cotton spinning clusters in Weifang, Shandong, and Nantong, Jiangsu, benefit from slight cotton yarn price increases, providing bargaining space for downstream grey fabric and home textile companies. However, cotton prices are still 16.08% higher year-on-year, while cotton yarn has risen only about 7%, significantly compressing spinning margins.