Pakistan's Cotton Yarn Defies the Trend: Three Drivers Behind the Shake-up in the Open-End Spinning Market

In May 2026, China's cotton yarn import market presented a striking contrast: total imports contracted 14% month-on-month, yet imports from Pakistan bucked the trend with a marginal increase and a staggering 80% year-on-year surge.

Total Imports Shrink, Pakistan Stands Out

According to customs data, China imported approximately 172,200 tons of cotton yarn in May, down 14.03% from the previous month but up 71.75% year-on-year. By source, imports from Vietnam and India, the traditional leaders, stood at 82,050 tons and 22,430 tons, down 11.83% and 29.38% month-on-month, respectively. In contrast, imports from Pakistan reached about 21,310 tons, a slight 0.01% increase month-on-month and a massive 80.36% jump year-on-year. This comparison clearly shows that Pakistani yarn is capturing market share from Vietnam and India amid overall weak demand.

Three Driving Forces: Currency, Domestic Demand, and Geopolitical Orders

Pakistan's growth is no accident. First, the long-term depreciation of the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar directly lowers export prices, boosting global competitiveness. Second, weak domestic textile and apparel demand forces mills to increase export sales to clear inventory. Third, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have diverted some low-to-mid count yarn orders from Southeast Asia back to China, with Pakistan being a key beneficiary.

Open-End Market Under Pressure, Siro Spun Remains Resilient

Feedback from major weaving hubs in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong indicates that as Southeast Asian transfer orders wind down and domestic autumn/winter orders have yet to materialize, inquiries and transactions for open-end yarn in bonded warehouses and on forward cargoes have slowed. Prices for open-end yarn from Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India continue to edge down. In contrast, shipments of Pakistan's 8S-21S siro spun yarn have not weakened significantly, demonstrating market resilience in that specific segment.

Cotton Price Correction and Energy Improvement Bolster Supply

Notably, since mid-June, domestic cotton prices in Pakistan have fallen sharply, while the energy and power supply crisis has eased, leading to higher mill operating rates. This means Pakistani mills face increasing export pressure but also have room for further price cuts. For importers holding dollars, the rupee's depreciation outlook suggests lower replenishment costs ahead.

Practical Advice for Buyers and Traders

For Buyers - Monitor the replenishment window for Pakistani siro spun yarn: given the cotton price correction and rupee depreciation, this may be an opportunity to lock in low-cost supplies. - Diversify sourcing: assess the cost-effectiveness of Pakistani yarn against price corrections in Vietnamese and Indian yarns to optimize the supply chain.

For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Beware of open-end yarn inventory risk: as orders wind down and prices correct, control procurement pace to avoid high-cost stock. - Hedge against currency fluctuations: track the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar and include currency lock-in clauses in forward contracts to reduce exchange losses.