On June 28, 2026, the Wangjiangjing polyester filament market displayed a continued weak pattern. Among over 80 tracked specifications, only a few, such as FDY 150D/36F and FDY 100D/72F, saw a reduction of 100 yuan per ton, while the rest remained flat compared to June 25. This 'localized loosening, overall stalemate' scenario is not a sign of market stabilization but rather an indication that the game between upstream and downstream players has entered a critical phase.
From a product mix perspective, FDY 75D/144F maintained relatively decent sales, while DTY 150D/144F showed weak purchasing power. This highlights that differentiated products still have some resilience during downturns, but liquidity for conventional specifications is diminishing.
The Supply-Demand Logic Behind the Price Stalemate
The surface calm masks deeper contradictions. On the upstream side, prices of PTA and MEG, the key raw materials, have lacked clear direction recently, significantly weakening cost support. With no upward cost driver, polyester filament mills' price-holding intentions stem more from a passive response to inventory pressure than from genuine demand pull.
From the supply side, polyester production capacity in Wangjiangjing and surrounding areas remains high. Although some mills planned maintenance in early June, overall operating rates have not dropped significantly, ensuring ample market supply. Meanwhile, downstream weaving enterprises face a dual dilemma of insufficient orders and thin margins, prompting them to adopt a 'buy-as-needed' strategy for raw materials, with extremely low willingness to build inventory.
This wait-and-see attitude among buyers is directly reflected in transaction volumes. Industry data shows that the sales-to-production ratio for polyester filament in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region in late June remained at 40-50%, far below normal levels. This 'price without volume' state is causing mill inventory pressure to accumulate, laying the groundwork for subsequent price adjustments.
The Transmission Effect on Regional Industrial Clusters
As a major polyester filament distribution hub, price fluctuations in Wangjiangjing serve as a bellwether for downstream weaving clusters like Shengze and Keqiao. A prolonged price stalemate will exacerbate cost calculation difficulties for weaving enterprises. On one hand, without a clear price drop in raw materials, it is hard to anchor grey fabric pricing; on the other hand, price pressure from end-brand apparel brands is being transmitted upstream, forcing weavers to pass risk back to the raw material side.
Notably, the initial price cuts in FDY 100D/72F and 150D/36F may signal that other specifications will follow. These two specifications are widely used in simulated silk and lining fabrics, and their price easing often indicates that weak terminal demand has spread from low-end to mid-end varieties.
Outlook and Risk Warnings
Considering raw material trends and the supply-demand landscape, polyester filament prices will likely face a systemic downward adjustment in early July. The magnitude of the drop may depend on two variables: whether polyester raw materials can stop falling, and whether downstream weaving operating rates will decline further. If the raw material side continues to weaken, the polyester filament price drop could exceed 200 yuan per ton.
For market participants, the biggest risk to watch out for is the 'price bottom' illusion. While some specifications seem close to cost lines, a sustained demand contraction could easily break cost support. Historically, during the 2019 and 2022 polyester downturns, prices fell below cash costs.