Pakistani Yarn Breaks Through: May Import Data Reveals Shifts in Open-End Spun Market

In May 2026, China's cotton yarn import market showed a structural signal worth noting: total imports plunged 14.03% month-on-month to 172,200 tons, yet Pakistani yarn imports bucked the trend with a slight increase to 21,310 tons, soaring 80.36% year-on-year. While traditional suppliers like Vietnam and India saw MoM declines of 11.83% and 29.38% respectively, what does Pakistani yarn's stability mean?

Volume and Price Double Hit in Open-End Spun Market

Feedback from major weaving bases in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong indicates a clear slowdown in inquiries and transactions for bonded and forward open-end spun yarn. FOB/CNF/CIF quotes from Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India have been trending down, creating a classic volume-price decline scenario.

This phenomenon is driven by two forces: the winding down of Southeast Asian transferred orders to China, which had boosted demand for open-end yarn, and the lack of new domestic autumn/winter orders, leaving a vacuum. Combined with market expectations of US tariff hikes under Section 301 in July, traders and mills are adopting a wait-and-see approach.

Why Pakistani Yarn Stands Out

Pakistani yarn's resilience is not accidental. The long-term depreciation trend of the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar directly lowers export costs, giving it a price advantage over Vietnamese and Indian yarns. Meanwhile, after easing energy and power supply crises, Pakistani mills have raised operating rates, but weak domestic demand forces them to shift capacity to exports.

More critically, geopolitical trade flows are reshaping. Conflicts involving the US, Israel, and Iran have redirected some low-mid count, low-profit apparel orders from Southeast Asia back to China. These orders are highly cost-sensitive, and Pakistani yarn benefits from stable cotton blending, shorter shipping distances, and faster delivery. The 'two-way flow' of cotton yarn and fabric between China and Pakistan is becoming a measurable market reality.

Impact on Sourcing and Trade Patterns

Operations of a Zhejiang-based textile import-export company reveal industry sentiment: with Pakistani cotton prices dropping sharply, waiting for restocking opportunities is the mainstream strategy. This means Pakistani yarn's cost advantage will further widen, potentially diverting procurement budgets from Vietnam and India.

For Chinese weaving mills, Pakistani yarn's rise offers a new cost-control path. However, caution is needed: Pakistani yarn is mainly in low-mid count carded and open-end segments. If Southeast Asian order transfers slow and domestic demand doesn't pick up, inventory pressure may shift from Vietnamese and Indian yarns to Pakistani yarn.

Practical Recommendations

For Sourcing Teams - Monitor Pakistani cotton price trends and rupee exchange rate dynamics; the current window is favorable for locking in long-term Pakistani yarn contracts, but limit single exposure - Treat price corrections in Vietnamese and Indian open-end yarn as short-term; compare total landed costs with Pakistani yarn, not just absolute prices - Track tariff policy developments dynamically; avoid overstocking bonded goods before policy implementation

For Foreign Trade Companies - Leverage Pakistani yarn's competitiveness to expand China-Pakistan yarn re-export trade, targeting garment processing hubs like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka - Assess whether Southeast Asian order transfers are structural rather than cyclical; if geopolitical conflicts persist, consider establishing direct long-term sourcing agreements with Pakistani mills - Be alert to inventory devaluation risks from the volume and price decline in open-end yarn; accelerate transit cargo turnover