In the first four months of 2026, the textile industry's operational data sends a clear signal: overall growth is slowing, but internal structure is accelerating divergence. The six core indicators—industrial value-added, fixed asset investment, retail sales, revenue, profits, and exports—no longer show synchronized growth, with notable hot and cold spots.
Data Overview: Slowing Growth and Profit Pressure
According to publicly available data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the textile industry's value-added growth rate from January to April 2026 fell by about 1.2 percentage points compared to the same period in 2025. The chemical fiber sector maintained a growth rate above 5%, while terminal categories like apparel and home textiles dropped below 2%. Fixed asset investment grew by approximately 3.8% year-on-year, narrowing by nearly 2 percentage points from 2025, indicating cautious expansion sentiment.
On the domestic demand side, retail sales of apparel, footwear, hats, and knitwear by enterprises above designated size grew by 4.1%, down 1.5 percentage points from 2025. Online channel growth, while still faster than offline, also decelerated. Profit pressure was more acute: revenue of textile enterprises above scale grew 2.5%, but total profits only increased 0.8%, squeezing margins due to rising raw material and labor costs.
Export Market: Volume Stable, Price Falling, Structure Shifting
Customs data shows that China's textile and apparel exports from January to April 2026 grew by 1.6% in value, but unit prices fell about 3%, indicating a 'volume up, price down' trend. By category, upstream products like chemical fiber filaments and staple fibers saw export growth of 4.2%, while terminal products like apparel and home textiles only grew 0.7%.
Regionally, exports to Belt and Road countries such as ASEAN and Central Asia maintained growth above 6%, while exports to traditional European and American markets grew less than 1%, with some categories seeing negative growth. This shift means China's textile exports are diversifying away from reliance on Europe and the U.S., but new markets generally offer lower unit prices, limiting profit contributions.
Industry Transmission: Upstream Prosperity vs. Downstream Stagnation
Behind the data is a clear transmission chain: upstream sectors like chemical fiber and yarn, supported by firm raw material prices and export demand, maintained operating rates above 80% and decent profits; midstream fabric sectors faced order fragmentation, with capacity utilization dropping to around 75%; downstream apparel and home textile enterprises struggled with inventory buildup and difficulty raising prices, with some small and medium enterprises seeing profit declines exceeding 10%.
This divergence is particularly evident in regional industrial clusters. Markets like Keqiao and Shengze, focused on chemical fiber and fabrics, still saw transaction volume growth but with squeezed margins. Terminal markets like Nantong home textiles and Humen apparel experienced noticeable under-capacity, with some enterprises shifting to small-batch, quick-response models to survive.
Policy and Outlook: Balancing Stability and Restructuring
The '15th Five-Year Plan for Employment Priority Strategy' explicitly supports stabilizing employment in light industry and textiles, meaning policy won't allow a major downturn. However, environmental and energy consumption constraints remain strict, requiring enterprises to balance expansion and technical upgrades carefully.
Based on data trends, the second half of 2026 will likely continue the pattern of 'low overall growth, high structural divergence.' For buyers, upstream standardized products like chemical fiber and grey fabrics are in ample supply with limited price volatility; but downstream customized, functional products still offer premium opportunities, with the key being to lock in technologically advanced suppliers.