In May 2026, China's imported cotton yarn market sent a noteworthy signal: total volume shrank 14% month-on-month, but Pakistani yarn bucked the trend with a slight increase and an 80% year-on-year surge. This divergence suggests a substantive shift in the competitive landscape for low-count yarn imports.
Total Imports Decline, Pakistani Yarn Stands Out
Customs data shows China imported approximately 172,200 tons of cotton yarn in May, down about 14% from April. Vietnamese yarn fell nearly 12% to 82,050 tons, while Indian yarn plunged 29% to 22,430 tons. Only Pakistani yarn, at 21,310 tons, edged up 0.01% month-on-month and soared over 80% year-on-year. This is no random fluctuation but the result of multiple structural factors.
Feedback from industrial clusters in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong indicates that inquiries and transactions for open-end yarn at ports are slowing. FOB/CNF quotes for open-end yarn from Vietnam, India, and Indonesia have already declined, while shipments of Pakistani 8S-21S siro-spun yarn remain robust. This suggests downstream buyers are more receptive to Pakistani yarn, tolerating its stable cotton blending, shorter transit times, and competitive pricing.
Three Drivers Behind Pakistani Yarn's Rise
The surge in Pakistani yarn imports is driven by more than one factor. First, the Pakistani rupee's medium-to-long-term depreciation against the dollar directly lowers its yarn's dollar-denominated prices, offering clear cost advantages to Chinese buyers. A Zhejiang-based textile trading company explicitly stated it is waiting for the right moment to restock Pakistani yarn, as the rupee's decline and falling Pakistani cotton prices open a buying window.
Second, domestic supply-demand imbalance in Pakistan plays a role. After energy and power supply crises eased, mill operating rates recovered, but domestic demand remains weak, forcing mills to ramp up exports. This 'weak domestic demand, export pressure' dynamic reinforces their reliance on the Chinese market.
Third, the ripple effects of geopolitical order transfers persist. Conflicts in the Middle East have redirected some low-margin, low-count textile orders from Southeast Asia back to China. These orders are highly price-sensitive, and Pakistani yarn's cost advantage fits perfectly. Although the order transfer is winding down, Pakistani yarn has already leveraged this window to consolidate channel relationships.
Open-End Under Pressure, Siro-Spun Shines
The most pronounced divergence in the current import yarn market is at the product category level. Open-end yarn is trapped in a 'volume and price decline' dilemma: fading Southeast Asian orders, unreleased domestic autumn/winter orders, and expectations of additional US tariffs under Section 301 in July have slowed transactions for bonded and forward open-end yarn significantly. The price pullbacks from Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India directly reflect this expectation.
In contrast, Pakistani siro-spun yarn shipments show greater resilience. Products in the 8S-21S range maintain stable demand in Guangdong and Jiangsu weaving markets, thanks to Pakistani yarn's stable cotton blending and shorter shipping times compared to Southeast Asian origins. For weaving mills, Pakistani yarn's advantages in delivery reliability and quality consistency offset its not-always-lowest price.