A stark contrast in data reveals the true face of China's down industry in the first five months of 2025. Exports fell 14.2%, yet imports surged 66% monthly—this is not mere market fluctuation but a direct reflection of diverging domestic and international demand structures.
Export Weakness: Cyclical Drag, Not a Trend Reversal
According to industry data, from January to May, total down exports reached approximately $650 million, down 14.2% year-on-year, with the decline widening from the Jan-Apr period. This reflects a cyclical downturn in overseas consumer markets and shifting global consumption patterns. European and American markets are slowing inventory digestion, leading to conservative procurement and lower export orders for down products and raw materials.
However, the export decline is not a full-sector collapse. By product category, high-value-added items like functional down jackets and premium bedding are still gaining share, while low-end products drag down overall volume. This means export companies relying solely on price advantage face elimination, while factories with product iteration capabilities are securing better orders even during the contraction.
Import Explosion: Raw Materials and Finished Goods Both Surge, Domestic Upgrade Irreversible
In stark contrast to sluggish exports, the import market is red-hot. Jan-May total imports hit $350 million, up 46.5% YoY, with May alone at $87.09 million, a 66.0% surge—a sharp acceleration from April's 15.2%.
- **Raw down imports**: Volume and value both rose, but price growth far outpaced volume. Jan-May raw down imports were 15,000 tons (up 13.1%), but import value hit $170 million (up 70.3%); May single-month value growth hit 118.6%. This directly signals tight global supply of premium down and rising prices. Domestic brands are forced to increase overseas procurement to meet consumer demand for high-fill-power, high-cleanliness down.
- **Down garment imports**: Also maintained double-digit growth. Jan-May total was 2.017 million pieces worth $180 million, up 25.3% and 29.9% respectively; May single-month volume and value growth reached 39.9% and 41.8%. This reveals a key trend: domestic demand for overseas brand down jackets is shifting from trial to necessity, especially for functional design and eco-certification.
Behind the import data lies the deep logic of domestic consumption upgrade. As per capita GDP surpasses $12,000, consumer requirements for down products have evolved from mere warmth to lightness, eco-friendliness, and traceability, directly boosting demand for imported raw materials and garments.
Industry Impact: Raw Material Cost Pass-through and Supply Chain Reshaping
High import raw material prices are transmitting through the entire supply chain. For down product factories, cost pressure will not ease in the short term. In the first five months, domestic high-quality duck and goose down prices also rose 15%-20% following international trends.
Meanwhile, the rapid growth of imported garments is reshaping the domestic competitive landscape. International brands dominate the above-5,000-yuan premium segment with superior raw materials and brand premium, while local brands face pressure to move up—either by enhancing raw material quality through overseas procurement or by differentiating through functional R&D.
For down industry clusters like Shengze, Xiaoshan, and Nantong, this is both a challenge and an opportunity. Companies that have preemptively built traceable supply chains and established long-term partnerships with overseas premium raw material suppliers are gaining higher bargaining power.