Pakistani Yarn Breaks Through: Shifting Dynamics in the Open-End Spun Market and Procurement Strategy Recalibration

In May 2026, China's total cotton yarn imports reached 172,200 tons, down 14.03% month-on-month but surging 71.75% year-on-year. The more telling story lies in the structural divergence: Vietnamese and Indian yarn imports fell 11.83% and 29.38% month-on-month, respectively, while Pakistani yarn, accounting for 12.37% of total imports, edged up 0.01% month-on-month and skyrocketed 80.36% year-on-year. This contrast signals a profound supply-side reshuffle in the open-end spun market.

The Source of Pakistani Yarn's Competitiveness

Pakistani yarn's counter-trend growth is no fluke. First, the Pakistani rupee's sustained depreciation against the US dollar directly lowered FOB quotes, giving it a crushing price advantage in the low-to-mid count segment. Second, weak domestic textile demand in Pakistan forced mills to tilt toward exports, especially after energy and power supply constraints eased, boosting capacity utilization and export pressure.

More critically, geopolitical trade shifts played a role. The US-Israel-Iran conflict redirected some low-to-mid count, low-margin apparel orders from Southeast Asia back to China. These orders are highly price-sensitive, and Pakistani yarn filled the gap left by Vietnamese and Indian yarns as their prices corrected. Meanwhile, the "two-way trade" mechanism between China and Pakistan—China imports low-to-mid count yarn from Pakistan, while Pakistan imports high-count fabrics from China—has created a stable industrial complementarity. Shorter shipping distances and more consistent cotton blending further strengthened Pakistani yarn's supply chain resilience.

Open-End Spun Market Enters Price Bargaining Phase

Downstream feedback indicates a classic "volume and price decline" pattern in the open-end spun market. Weaving mills and yarn traders in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong reported that Southeast Asian transfer orders are winding down, domestic winter-spring orders have yet to materialize, and uncertainty over US Section 301 tariff investigation results has slowed inquiries and transactions for bonded and forward-shipment open-end spun yarn.

FOB/CNF/CIF quotes for open-end spun yarn from Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India have continued to edge down, while Pakistani 8S-21S siro-spun yarn shipments, though not yet significantly weakening, face mounting price pressure. A Zhejiang-based textile import-export company noted that Pakistani domestic cotton prices have already corrected sharply, and as mills resume higher capacity utilization with lower energy costs, export competition is intensifying. Buyers holding cash are waiting for even lower replenishment points.

Practical Recommendations for Buyers and Foreign Trade Companies

The market is at a crossroads between "high year-on-year growth" and "weakening month-on-month momentum," requiring procurement strategies to shift from passive chasing to active timing.

For Buyers - Monitor Pakistani cotton price correction pace: Domestic cotton prices in Pakistan are in a downtrend, compounded by rupee depreciation. CNF quotes for 8S-16S siro-spun yarn may still have 3%-5% downside, so phased accumulation rather than one-time locking is advisable. - Beware of "false rebounds" in Vietnamese and Indian open-end yarns: Both countries' mills may offer short-term discounts to clear inventory, but inconsistent cotton blending and longer shipping times add hidden costs. Prioritize Pakistani spot or near-term shipment yarn. - Leverage the 301 tariff uncertainty window: Before the July tariff decision, some traders may rush to sell. Try to negotiate 5%-8% discounts with 90-day L/C settlement to reduce capital tied up.

For Foreign Trade Companies - Adjust product mix: Low-to-mid count open-end yarn competition is already a red ocean. Use Pakistani yarn as a regular volume runner while shifting toward high-count combed or differentiated blended yarns (e.g., Tencel/cotton, polyester/cotton) to avoid price wars. - Optimize import source allocation: Increase Pakistani yarn's share to 15%-20%, reducing dependence on single sources like Vietnam or India, and leverage China-Pakistan FTA tariff preferences to lower overall costs. - Strengthen currency risk management: The rupee's depreciation trend is clear but volatile. Use forward contracts or options to lock in exchange rate costs in CNF quotes, preventing adverse swings from eroding margins at settlement.