Viscose staple fiber prices are approaching a three-year ceiling. As of June 29, 2026, the benchmark price for 1.2D grade stood at 14,200 RMB/ton, up 1% from the beginning of the month. More notably, this price has reached the highest level in the past 12 months, representing a 10.9% increase from the year's low of 12,800 RMB/ton. Industry data indicates that this price is in the high range of the one-year position and has triggered overbought warnings for 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year periods.
Supply and Demand Dynamics Behind the High Price
Looking at annual statistics, the fluctuation range of viscose staple fiber is between 12,800 RMB/ton and 14,200 RMB/ton, with a median of 13,500 RMB/ton and an average of 13,194.26 RMB/ton. The current price is about 7.6% above the average and exactly at the top of the range, suggesting that seller pricing power has peaked for the time being. For the textile supply chain, this raw material rigidity is being transmitted downstream. As a key variety of man-made fiber, the cost of viscose staple fiber directly impacts the pricing of rayon yarn, rayon fabric, and even end-use apparel. The current high price likely reflects two factors: upstream cost support from dissolving pulp and other raw materials, and a tight balance between industry operating rates and inventory levels. Market sentiment shows buyers are becoming cautious about chasing higher prices, but there is no sign of large-scale supply increases.
Transmission and Pressure on Downstream Industries
The high price of viscose staple fiber puts yarn producers in a double squeeze—rising raw material costs on one side and limited ability to raise end-product prices on the other. Rayon yarn manufacturers face a dilemma: if they follow the price increase, they risk losing orders; if they don't, losses widen. This pressure will further impact fabric weaving, especially in industry clusters like Xiaoshan in Zhejiang and Wujiang in Jiangsu, where rayon is a major product category. Companies in these regions are likely to adopt more conservative order-taking strategies. At the same time, high prices may stimulate substitution effects, with some buyers turning to cheaper polyester staple fiber or regenerated cellulose fibers, potentially dampening future demand for viscose staple fiber.
Market Outlook and Risk Warnings
The current price is at a "top difference of zero," meaning further upside lacks historical reference, and the risk of a technical correction is accumulating. Industry data also signals "overbought" conditions, indicating that the price has deviated too far from its long-term average, typically suggesting an increased probability of a correction within the next 1-3 months. For inventory management, holders face the risk of unrealized gains reversing, while those without inventory must weigh the risks of chasing highs versus missing out. From a broader perspective, if viscose staple fiber prices remain high, it could accelerate the shift of downstream production to Southeast Asia, where raw material costs are relatively lower.