The polyester staple fiber market is undergoing a significant downward shift in its price center. On June 29, 2026, the publicly quoted benchmark price stood at 7,452.12 RMB/ton, a 4.85% decline from the start of the month, and an even sharper drop compared to the same period last year. Over the past 12 months, prices have fluctuated between a low of 6,267 RMB/ton and a high of 8,426 RMB/ton, but the annual average was only 6,960 RMB/ton, well below the current level. This indicates that while the current price sits at the median of the year's range, it remains above the average, suggesting the market has not yet found a true bottom.
Supply-Demand Imbalance Drives Price Down
The persistent pressure on polyester staple fiber prices stems from supply-side capacity expansion outpacing demand growth. In the past two years, several large-scale polymerization units have been commissioned domestically, leading to concentrated capacity additions in the staple fiber sector. Consequently, industry operating rates have hovered around 70%. Meanwhile, downstream spinning and weaving sectors, constrained by sluggish end-apparel consumption, have adopted cautious purchasing strategies, favoring small, just-in-time orders over large inventory builds. This structural oversupply makes prices prone to decline and resistant to recovery, with any temporary rebound quickly absorbed by new capacity.
Examining the annual price range, the spread between the low of 6,267 RMB/ton and the high of 8,426 RMB/ton exceeds 2,100 RMB, representing a volatility of over 25%. This indicates that market sentiment can still swing sharply in response to supply-demand news. However, the median value of 7,346 RMB/ton and the current price of 7,452 RMB/ton are closely aligned, suggesting prices have been oscillating near the center for months without a clear upward catalyst.
Transmission Effects Along the Supply Chain
As an intermediate raw material, polyester staple fiber's price trajectory directly impacts the cost structure of downstream products such as yarn, nonwovens, and filling materials. For spinning mills, where raw material costs account for 60%-70% of total costs, every 100 RMB drop in staple fiber prices can improve gross profit per ton of yarn by approximately 60-70 RMB. However, in reality, yarn prices have fallen in tandem, preventing a significant expansion of profit margins. More critically, sustained price declines discourage downstream hoarding, creating a 'buy on rising, not falling'观望 cycle that further reduces market liquidity.
For chemical fiber producers, current prices are approaching the cash cost line of some high-cost plants. If prices continue to converge toward the annual average of 6,960 RMB/ton, industry losses will widen, potentially triggering a new round of production cuts or maintenance turnarounds. This, in turn, could lay the groundwork for a subsequent price stabilization.
Regional Industrial Belt Responses
In key polyester staple fiber consumption regions such as Shengze, Changxing, and Fujian, weaving enterprises have largely adopted a 'buy-as-needed' strategy, reducing raw material inventory days to 7-10, well below the normal 15-20 days. Fabric traders at the Keqiao Light Textile City report that downstream orders are characterized by short lead times and small volumes, lacking sustained large-scale orders. This makes buyers highly sensitive to any price increases, which immediately curtail procurement.
Notably, export markets have served as a buffer for some producers to absorb excess capacity. According to China Customs data, polyester staple fiber exports grew by approximately 8% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, primarily directed to Southeast and South Asian markets. However, overseas markets are also facing capacity expansion pressures, compressing export margins and failing to fundamentally alleviate the domestic supply-demand imbalance.