Pakistani Yarn Defies Trend: May Import Data Reveals Structural Divergence in Open-End Spun Market

In May 2026, China's total cotton yarn imports reached 172,200 tons, down 14.03% month-on-month but up 71.75% year-on-year. While the aggregate figures suggest a recovery, the breakdown reveals stark divergence. Imports from Vietnam and India fell 11.83% and 29.38% respectively, while Pakistani yarn increased 0.01% month-on-month and surged 80.36% year-on-year, defying the overall downturn.

Three Drivers Behind Pakistani Yarn's Resilience

The rise of Pakistani yarn is no accident. Customs data shows 21,310 tons imported in May, accounting for 12.37% of total imports. Industry data indicates the Pakistani rupee's continued depreciation against the U.S. dollar has lowered FOB prices, creating a cost advantage. Simultaneously, weak domestic demand in Pakistan has pushed mills to export more aggressively.

Geopolitical factors also play a role. The U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has redirected some low-margin, low-count Southeast Asian textile orders back to China, where Pakistani yarn—with stable cotton blending and shorter shipping times—has become a preferred substitute. This "order repatriation plus Pakistani yarn fill-in" dynamic is clearly reflected in May's data.

Open-End Spun Yarn: Volume and Price Decline

In contrast, the open-end spun yarn market faces simultaneous volume and price declines. Feedback from weaving mills and traders in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong indicates slow inquiries and transactions for bonded and forward cargo open-end yarn. FOB/CNF/CIF quotes from Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India continue to soften.

Two forces are at play: first, the winding down of transferred Southeast Asian orders has reduced near-term demand; second, domestic winter-spring orders have yet to be placed, leaving a gap. Additionally, expectations of U.S. tariff hikes under Section 301 in July are dampening importers' restocking appetite.

Differential Resilience of SIRO Spun Yarn

Notably, while open-end yarn weakens, Pakistani 8S-21S SIRO spun yarn shipments remain steady. A Zhejiang-based trading company reports that Pakistani cotton prices have corrected sharply since mid-June, and mill operating rates are recovering as energy and power supply issues ease, increasing export pressure. This suggests the cost-performance advantage of SIRO yarn continues to attract domestic buyers.

From a supply chain perspective, SIRO yarn's resilience reflects sustained demand for low-count yarns used in denim and workwear. However, if Pakistani cotton prices fall further, mill margins will compress, potentially leading to lower export quotes—creating a restocking opportunity for Chinese buyers.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Monitor Pakistani rupee trends and cotton price corrections. A wait-and-see approach is prudent, but be prepared for a pre-tariff rush if the July Section 301 decision triggers a shipping window. - Increase the procurement share of 8S-21S SIRO yarn over open-end yarn to hedge against inventory depreciation risks from falling open-end prices. - Stay cautious on Vietnamese and Indian open-end yarn until a second confirmation of Southeast Asian order repatriation emerges.

For Foreign Trade Firms - Leverage Sino-Pakistani trade synergies by negotiating long-term agreements with Pakistani mills to lock in currency-driven cost benefits. - Monitor the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict's evolution. If geopolitical risks persist, order repatriation may become a medium-term trend, allowing early positioning in SIRO yarn export channels. - For U.S.-bound orders, adopt a phased shipment strategy to mitigate the impact of potential July tariff hikes.