The viscose staple fiber market is experiencing a rare price peak. According to publicly available industry data, on June 29, 2026, the benchmark price of viscose staple fiber 1.2D stood at 14,200 yuan per ton, up 1.0% from the beginning of the month and over 10% higher than the year's low of 12,800 yuan per ton. This price is also the highest in the past year and has entered the multi-year high range.
Price Movement: A Complete Cycle from Bottom to Top
Looking back at the past year, viscose staple fiber prices have undergone a clear 'V-shaped' reversal. Annual statistics from June 29, 2025, to June 29, 2026, show the lowest price at 12,800 yuan per ton, while the current price sits at the upper edge of the one-year range. The annual average is 13,194.26 yuan per ton, with a median of 13,500 yuan per ton. This means the current price is about 7.6% above the annual average. The 'top difference zero' data indicates the current price coincides exactly with the year's highest point, suggesting seller pricing power has peaked temporarily.
Notably, the product is in an 'overbought' warning across one-year, two-year, and three-year cycles. This typically suggests prices have deviated significantly from historical averages, and market risks are accumulating. However, overbought does not necessarily mean an immediate correction; it is more a signal for all participants to monitor subsequent supply-demand marginal changes.
Driving Factors: Dual Resonance of Cost and Demand
The core drivers of this price rally come from two aspects. First, cost pass-through from raw materials. Dissolving pulp, the main feedstock for viscose staple fiber, has seen its international market price rise steadily over the past six months, directly lifting production costs. Second, downstream demand has provided periodic support. The rayon yarn market experienced a concentrated restocking period at the end of Q2, as textile mills increased purchases of viscose staple fiber to prepare for summer orders and autumn production. The tightening on both supply and demand sides has allowed viscose staple fiber plants to maintain high quotes with low inventory levels.
From an industrial cluster perspective, operating rates in major production areas such as Xinjiang and Shandong remain high, but new capacity release has not accelerated significantly. This means limited short-term supply growth, providing strong price support. For downstream weaving mills, the sharp rise in raw material costs is compressing profit margins. Some small and medium-sized yarn mills have adopted a 'buy-as-needed' strategy to avoid high-price stockpiling.
Outlook and Risks: Sustainability of High Prices in Question
Whether current prices can be sustained depends on downstream demand absorption capacity. Historically, after hitting an annual high, viscose staple fiber prices tend to enter a 1-2 month stalemate period, followed by a pullback as the demand season weakens. In Q3 2026, the textile industry will enter a traditional off-season, and rayon yarn orders are expected to decline. If dissolving pulp prices do not continue to rise, viscose staple fiber prices will likely see a correction from highs.
Additionally, the substitution effect between cotton and viscose staple fiber warrants attention. Current cotton prices are relatively stable. If viscose staple fiber prices remain high, some mills may adjust their blending ratios to increase cotton usage, thereby suppressing viscose demand.