In May 2026, China's cotton yarn imports plummeted by 14% month-on-month, yet Pakistani yarn bucked the trend with an 80% year-on-year surge—a clear indication of structural shifts in the low-count yarn market.
Import Pattern Divergence: Pakistan Stands Alone
According to the latest customs data, China imported approximately 172,200 tons of cotton yarn in May 2026, down 14.03% month-on-month but still up 71.75% year-on-year. Among key suppliers, Vietnam shipped 82,050 tons (-11.83% MoM), and India 22,430 tons (-29.38% MoM). In contrast, Pakistan exported 21,310 tons, a marginal 0.01% monthly increase but an 80.36% year-on-year surge, outperforming all major competitors.
This means Pakistan was the only major source country to maintain positive month-on-month growth in May. Its share of China's cotton yarn imports has risen to 12.37%, significantly higher than a year ago.
Open-End Yarn Under Pressure: Triple Headwinds
Feedback from weaving mills and yarn traders in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong indicates a clear slowdown in inquiries and transactions for open-end (OE) yarn, both in bonded warehouses and for forward shipments. FOB/CNF/CIF offers from Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India have continued to edge lower.
Three factors explain this: first, the transfer of apparel orders from Southeast Asia to China is winding down, reducing temporary demand for OE yarn; second, domestic winter-spring orders have not yet been placed, keeping buyers on the sidelines; third, market expectations of US tariff hikes under Section 301 are discouraging importers from building inventories.
Notably, Pakistan's 8S-21S siro spun yarn shipments have not weakened significantly, indicating sustained competitiveness in the low-count segment.
Key Drivers Behind Pakistan's Rise
Several factors are driving Pakistan's import growth. The Pakistani rupee's medium-to-long-term depreciation against the US dollar has directly lowered export costs. Domestic cotton prices have fallen sharply since mid-June, while mill operating rates have recovered as energy and power shortages ease, boosting export capacity.
More fundamentally, weak domestic demand in Pakistan is pushing mills to export more. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have redirected some low-count, low-margin apparel orders back to China, providing extra demand for Pakistani yarn. Stable cotton blending and shorter shipping distances further enhance its appeal.
Procurement Implications for Chinese Mills
For Chinese weaving enterprises, the current market environment calls for targeted procurement adjustments.
For Buyers - Watch for a buying window on Pakistani yarn: With the rupee depreciating and domestic cotton prices falling, further price declines are possible, making a wait-and-see approach potentially cost-effective. - Beware of OE yarn inventory risk: Offers from Vietnam and India are declining, but demand has not recovered. Avoid overstocking bonded OE yarn at current levels. - Consider siro spun substitution: Pakistan's 8S-21S siro spun yarn offers stable supply and could replace some OE yarn in low-count products to lower costs and ensure supply chain stability.
For Foreign Trade Companies - The trend of rising Pakistani yarn imports is likely to continue. Establish long-term relationships with Pakistani mills to lock in price advantages. - Monitor US tariff policy changes and their impact on end orders to avoid cargo delays due to trade friction. - As Southeast Asian orders wind down, increase focus on the domestic market, especially advance planning for winter-spring orders.
Overall, May's import data reveals not just Pakistan's temporary strength, but a long-term shift of spinning capacity to lower-cost regions. For domestic firms, capturing structural opportunities amid volatility will determine procurement costs and profit margins in the coming quarters.