The global cotton yarn trade landscape is undergoing a subtle restructuring. According to China Customs data for May 2026, total cotton yarn imports reached approximately 172,200 tons, down 14.03% month-on-month but up 71.75% year-on-year. This decline was primarily driven by Vietnam and India, whose imports fell 11.83% and 29.38% respectively, with their combined share dropping to around 60.65%.
Pakistan Yarn Defies the Trend
In stark contrast, Pakistan yarn imports bucked the overall trend. China imported about 21,310 tons from Pakistan in May, a slight 0.01% increase month-on-month and a staggering 80.36% surge year-on-year, accounting for 12.37% of total imports. This indicates that despite the broader slowdown in air-jet spun yarn inquiries and transactions, Pakistan yarn's competitiveness has not weakened but strengthened.
Three factors drive this performance. First, the medium- to long-term depreciation of the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar directly reduces export costs, making Pakistan yarn more price-aggressive. Second, weak domestic demand for textiles and apparel in Pakistan forces mills to shift capacity to overseas markets, with export pressure incentivizing increased foreign sales. Third, the Sino-Pak cotton yarn trade is evolving into a 'two-way street'—stable cotton blending quality and relatively low shipping costs enable Pakistan yarn to substitute in segments like 8S-21S siro spun yarn.
Air-Jet Spinning's Slowdown and the Ebb of Southeast Asian Orders
Feedback from weaving hubs in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong indicates a marked slowdown in inquiries and transactions for bonded and forward air-jet spun yarn. FOB/CNF/CIF quotes for air-jet spun yarn from Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India have continued to edge down, reflecting dual pressures of oversupply and weak demand.
A key variable is the wind-down of transferred orders from Southeast Asia. Earlier, conflicts involving the US, Israel, and Iran had redirected some low-margin, low-count textile orders back to China, but this temporary boost is fading. Meanwhile, domestic winter-spring orders have yet to materialize, leaving the market in a lull. Compounding this is the anticipation of potential US tariff hikes on Chinese imports based on Section 301 investigations in July, which has chilled importers' and mills' stockpiling appetite.
Pakistani Cotton Price Correction and Restocking Window
The strategy of a Zhejiang-based textile import-export company is illustrative. It notes that since mid-June, Pakistani cotton prices have corrected sharply, while mill operating rates have rebounded as energy and power supply crises ease, intensifying export pressure. For buyers with cash on hand, this presents a restocking opportunity.
Crucially, the medium-term depreciation trend of the Pakistani rupee remains intact, suggesting that Pakistan yarn's price advantage will persist for months. For weaving enterprises reliant on mid- to low-count yarns, Pakistan yarn is becoming a viable substitute for Vietnamese and Indian alternatives.