The spandex market in Fujian is currently experiencing an unusual period of quietude. According to publicly available industry data, by the end of June, ex-factory prices for mainstream 20D, 30D, and 40D spandex in the region stabilized at 33,000-35,000 RMB/ton, 32,000-33,000 RMB/ton, and 30,000-31,000 RMB/ton, respectively, with no significant fluctuations across specifications. However, beneath the surface of price stability lies an increasingly sharp tug-of-war between supply and demand: upstream cost support remains, but downstream buyers are only purchasing on a need-to-order basis, with widespread cautious sentiment.
Dual Pressure from Costs and Demand
From the cost perspective, prices for key spandex raw materials such as PTMEG and pure MDI have recently narrowed their fluctuations, maintaining a relatively high operating range. This provides spandex producers with a fairly solid cost floor. Theoretically, as long as raw materials do not experience a sharp collapse, spandex prices lack the room for a deep decline even in the face of weak demand. On the other hand, downstream textile and garment companies are currently in a traditional off-season, with end-user orders mostly short-term and small-scale, lacking the momentum for large-scale stockpiling. This structure of 'costs propping up the market, demand holding it back' has locked the spandex market into a typical stalemate.
For spandex factories in Fujian, this situation presents a dilemma: proactively cutting prices might stimulate some procurement, but it would erode already thin profit margins; holding prices firm risks inventory buildup and extended working capital turnover. Most factories are currently adopting a make-to-order approach, actively controlling operating rates to avoid widespread inventory accumulation.
Regional Characteristics and Transmission Effects of the Industrial Belt
As one of the more concentrated spandex production regions in China, Fujian's market movements serve as a bellwether for downstream weaving clusters in East and South China. Fujian's spandex enterprises are mostly large and medium-sized, primarily supplying knitted and woven fabric mills in Guangdong and Zhejiang. The current 'price-holding' signal from the Fujian market effectively sends a message across the entire southern textile supply chain: upstream raw material suppliers are reluctant to concede, but downstream buyers also lack the willingness to chase price increases.
This regional price rigidity is beginning to transmit further upstream to raw material markets. Traders of PTMEG and pure MDI report a slowdown in procurement volumes from the spandex industry recently, with some factories beginning to compress their raw material inventory cycles. This suggests that if the spandex market stalemate persists, it could force raw material suppliers to make price concessions, thereby breaking the current fragile balance.
Short-term Outlook and Long-term Variables
Historical experience suggests that after months of sideways movement, spandex prices often experience a directional choice. Two key observation indicators currently stand out: first, actual operating rate changes at spandex factories in Fujian and surrounding areas. If operating rates decline by more than 5% for two consecutive weeks, it may signal active supply-side contraction, providing a floor for prices. Second, the raw material inventory days of downstream weaving companies. If inventory days fall below 10 days, restocking demand may be released intensively, driving prices slightly higher.
However, the particularity of this year lies in the weak recovery of global textile and apparel end-consumption and increased uncertainty in export orders. This has made downstream companies generally conservative in their procurement strategies. Even if a restocking cycle occurs, its sustainability and magnitude may be weaker than in previous years.