PTA Rises Amid Polyester Chain Pressure: Textile Raw Material Market Divergence Intensifies

The divergence between raw material costs and end-product prices is becoming the most prominent contradiction in the textile industry chain. According to public data from June 29, 2026, PTA rose 0.90% daily, and acrylonitrile increased by 0.50%, while polyester FDY, polyester staple fiber, and raw silk all weakened collectively, with declines ranging from 0.13% to 0.68%. This pattern of 'upstream up, downstream down' indicates that cost pressure is accumulating in the midstream rather than being smoothly transmitted to the consumer end.

Upstream Raw Materials: Cost Support and Supply Disruptions

PTA prices rose from 5,734 yuan/ton to 5,785.66 yuan/ton between June 26 and 29, with a year-on-year increase of 13.78%. This trend is mainly driven by high international crude oil prices and maintenance shutdowns at some PX plants. Acrylonitrile prices broke through the 10,000 yuan mark, reaching 10,133.33 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year surge of 26.14%, reflecting the strength of acrylic and carbon fiber raw materials. In contrast, cotton fell 0.20% daily to 17,383.67 yuan/ton, and while its year-on-year increase of 15.08% remains considerable, it has shown signs of a high-level correction.

The firmness of upstream raw materials provides a bottom-line cost support for chemical fiber products. However, the question is whether this support can translate into downstream pricing power. Based on current data, the answer is not optimistic.

Polyester Chain: Price Inversion Signals Weak End Demand

Polyester filament and staple fiber were the most concentrated sectors in this decline. Polyester FDY fell 0.68% daily to 8,545 yuan/ton, polyester staple fiber dropped 0.43% to 7,419.88 yuan/ton, and polyester DTY and POY also fell 0.13% and 0.15%, respectively. Notably, although polyester FDY still has a year-on-year increase of 14.64%, its daily decline was the largest among all varieties, indicating a reversal in short-term supply-demand dynamics.

The weakness in polyester products directly points to insufficient operating rates in downstream weaving and dyeing sectors. In late June, which is traditionally a slack season, some weaving enterprises in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions reported a decrease in new orders and an accumulation of finished product inventory. The rise in PTA prices has increased polyester production costs, but downstream enterprises cannot pass on these increases through price hikes, forcing them to either compress profits or reduce production. If this 'flour more expensive than bread' pattern persists, it will accelerate cash flow pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises.

Cotton Spinning and Man-Made Fibers: Signals of Divergence Amid Stability

Cotton yarn 21S and 32S prices remained flat, at 23,400 yuan/ton and 24,725 yuan/ton, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 6.5%-7.5%, a moderate range. Viscose staple fiber and spandex also held steady, but spandex had a year-on-year increase of 21.09%, reflecting the resilience of demand for elastic fabrics. Rayon yarn prices were stable, with a year-on-year increase of only 3.17%, the lowest among chemical fiber varieties, indicating fierce competition in the alternative fiber market.

Raw silk prices fell 0.35% daily to 426,600 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 9.89%, making it the only variety in the list with a year-on-year decrease. This is behind the recovery in silkworm cocoon production and sluggish growth in downstream silk export orders. For silk enterprises that have long relied on exports, exchange rate fluctuations and overseas consumption downgrades remain major risks.

Industry Impact of Price Divergence: Proactive Procurement Strategies Needed

The current market divergence is essentially a process of profit redistribution along the industry chain. Upstream raw material suppliers maintain profits through cost advantages, midstream chemical fiber enterprises face a squeeze from both ends, and downstream apparel and home textile companies hold the bargaining power. The Textile Circle Editorial Department believes that this pattern will persist at least until the end of the third quarter.

For Buyers - Monitor the PTA-polyester spread: If PTA continues to rise while polyester prices remain flat, consider moderately reducing polyester procurement volumes and replacing them with cotton yarn or viscose staple fiber to avoid cost inversion risks. - Lock in acrylonitrile long-term contracts: With acrylonitrile up more than 26% year-on-year and frequent supply-side disruptions, acrylic and carbon fiber buyers are advised to sign 3-6 month long-term agreements with suppliers to lock in current prices. - Opportunistically replenish raw silk: Raw silk is down nearly 10% year-on-year, making it one of the few low-priced varieties currently. If downstream silk orders show signs of recovery, consider increasing inventory selectively.

For Factories - Flexibly adjust product mix: With profit margins squeezed for polyester FDY and staple fiber, appropriately increase the production capacity share of differentiated products such as spandex and nylon, using high-value-added items to offset losses from conventional products. - Control polyester production line operating rates: Avoid full-capacity production during price downtrends to prevent inventory buildup. It is recommended to keep operating rates between 70% and 80%, producing according to orders. - Monitor raw material inventory cycles: With PTA prices at high levels, the inventory cycle for polyester raw materials should be shortened to within 15 days to prevent losses from price declines.