In May 2026, China's imported cotton yarn market showed a structural signal worth noting: total imports fell 14% month-on-month, but Pakistani yarn imports bucked the trend with a slight increase, surging 80.36% year-on-year. This means that against a backdrop of weakening overall demand, Pakistani yarn is rapidly eating into the market share of traditional suppliers like Vietnam and India.
The Data Behind the Divergence
According to public data from China Customs, May saw China import approximately 172,200 tons of cotton yarn, down 14.03% month-on-month but still up 71.75% year-on-year. Among this, Vietnamese yarn imports stood at 82,050 tons, down 11.83% month-on-month; Indian yarn imports were 22,430 tons, plunging 29.38% month-on-month. Only Pakistani yarn imports, at 21,310 tons, remained essentially flat month-on-month, yet their year-on-year growth far outpaced the overall figure.
This divergence is no coincidence. Feedback from major weaving clusters in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong indicates that inquiries and transactions for open-end yarn in bonded warehouses and on forward shipments have been sluggish, with prices from Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India continuing to edge down. Meanwhile, shipments of Pakistani 8S-21S siro-spun yarn have not weakened significantly, pointing to sustained downstream demand.
Four Drivers Behind Pakistan's Rise
The counter-trend growth in Pakistani yarn imports is the result of multiple overlapping factors. First is the exchange rate dividend: the continuous depreciation of the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar directly lowers the export cost of Pakistani yarn, offering a clear value-for-money advantage for cost-sensitive domestic mills.
Second is the spillover of weak domestic demand: Pakistan's own textile and apparel market is sluggish, forcing mills to step up exports to absorb capacity. At the same time, the recent easing of energy and electricity supply crises has boosted mill operating rates, further increasing export availability.
Third is the smooth trade channel: the bilateral trade in cotton yarn and fabric between China and Pakistan has formed a stable, two-way structure, with shorter transport distances and more consistent cotton blending, offering a timeliness advantage over Southeast Asian supply chains.
Fourth is the effect of geopolitically driven order shifts: conflicts in the Middle East have led some low-mid count, low-margin textile and apparel orders from Southeast Asia to flow back to the Chinese market. These orders are highly sensitive to raw material costs, and Pakistani yarn fits this demand gap perfectly.
Implications for Downstream Sourcing Strategy
For domestic weaving mills and yarn traders, the current strength of Pakistani yarn is not a short-term fluctuation but a structural trend. The assessment from a Zhejiang-based textile import-export company is telling: with Pakistani domestic cotton prices falling sharply and the rupee depreciating, waiting with cash in hand for a replenishment opportunity is a rational strategy.
However, caution is warranted. The risk of US tariffs on Chinese imports under Section 301, with a potential implementation date in July, has yet to be resolved. Southeast Asian order transfers are in their final stages, and domestic winter-spring orders have not yet been placed. This means that while Pakistani yarn's cost advantage remains, total demand may be constrained by weak end-consumer spending.