The bulk commodity price monitoring data on June 29 reveals an uneven cost transmission within the textile industry chain. The upward momentum of PTA and acrylonitrile, contrasted with the weakening of polyester filament, staple fiber, and raw silk, constitutes the most noteworthy signal: upstream players are determined to maintain prices, but mid- and downstream capacity to absorb these costs is clearly insufficient.
The tug-of-war between cost and demand
PTA rose 0.90% day-on-day to 5,785.66 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year increase of 13.78%. Acrylonitrile followed closely, up 0.50% daily and surging 26.14% year-on-year. The strength of these two raw materials is primarily driven by high international crude oil prices and supply tightening due to maintenance at some plants. However, this cost-side push has not been effectively transmitted downstream. Polyester FDY fell 0.68% daily, staple fiber dropped 0.43%, and polyester POY and DTY also declined by 0.15% and 0.13% respectively.
This means that the weaving and texturing segments of the polyester chain are being squeezed by high input costs and low output prices. For factories in clusters like Shengze and Changxing, profit margins are already quite narrow. Buyer resistance to high-priced raw materials is directly reflected in the weakness of finished product prices.
The domestic demand logic behind raw silk's decline
Raw silk prices fell 0.35% to 426,600 yuan per ton, a year-on-year drop of 9.89%, making it the only bulk raw material with a negative annual growth rate among the monitored varieties. This is directly linked to weak domestic demand for silk apparel and home textiles. After a round of compensatory growth, consumer willingness to purchase high-priced silk products has waned, compounded by a wait-and-see attitude from traditional markets like India and Vietnam, slowing inventory digestion.
For silkworm-producing regions like Guangxi and Sichuan, persistently low raw silk prices may dampen farmers' enthusiasm for silkworm rearing in the second half of the year, potentially disrupting raw material supply next year. Exporters should note that if raw silk prices fall further below the 420,000 yuan per ton threshold, it may trigger government support purchasing mechanisms in some producing areas.
Inventory signals from stable varieties
Nine varieties, including cotton yarn 21S and 32S, viscose staple fiber, spandex, nylon series, and rayon yarn, remained flat compared to the previous trading day. This widespread 'zero fluctuation' is not a sign of a calm market, but rather a stalemate in price expectations between buyers and sellers. In particular, despite a 0.20% dip in cotton prices, spinners are holding firm on their quotes, suggesting that inventory pressure has not yet reached a critical point requiring price cuts.
Spandex prices have been consolidating at 29,666.67 yuan per ton for several consecutive days, up 21.09% year-on-year. This high-level consolidation puts continuous cost pressure on stretch fabric manufacturers. When signing long-term orders, buyers should pay more attention to floating pricing clauses rather than locking in fixed prices.