The Changxing polyester market experienced a broad-based price decline this week, with POY 75D/36F falling 200 RMB/ton to 8,350 RMB/ton, a drop of 2.3%. DTY grades weakened by 100 RMB/ton across the board, and certain FDY varieties also saw 200 RMB declines. While greige fabric prices remained flat, the persistent decline in raw materials has begun to pressure the weaving segment. This adjustment is not an isolated event but the combined effect of upstream PTA corrections, weak end-demand, and destocking in the intermediate chain.
Raw Material Side: PTA Weakness as Core Driver
The direct catalyst for polyester yarn price declines comes from the raw material side. According to publicly available data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the average spot price of PTA in late June fell about 1.5% from mid-month, with PX prices easing in tandem. Polyester yarn, as the direct downstream of PTA, saw cost support weaken, prompting polyester plants in Changxing to adjust prices first. Data shows POY had the most significant decline, which aligns with its role as a draw-texturing raw material with faster inventory turnover. Major suppliers like Shenjiu Chemical and Tongkun Group both cut POY prices by 200 RMB, signaling strong destocking intentions.
Notably, FDY bright series saw more moderate declines, with 50D/24F dropping only 100 RMB, reflecting sustained demand for fine denier bright yarn. However, conventional FDY grades like 61D/24F and 68D/24F both fell 200 RMB, indicating weak demand from the apparel fabric sector.
Yarn: Pure Polyester Yarn Follows Decline, T/C Yarn Shows Divergence
Pure polyester yarn 21s and 32s both dropped 200 RMB to 10,400 and 11,500 RMB/ton respectively, in line with polyester filament trends. In contrast, T80/C20 blended yarn only fell 100 RMB, and T90/C10 45s remained flat at 17,500 RMB/ton. This divergence is due to relatively stable cotton prices providing a cost floor for T/C blends. For buyers, the price window for pure polyester yarn is opening, but caution is needed against further raw material declines causing inventory write-downs.
Greige fabric prices saw no adjustment this week, with conventional items like water-jet polyester taffeta, pongee, satin, and sateen holding steady. However, this stability may be the "calm before the storm"—mills are mostly consuming high-cost raw material inventories, and if polyester yarn continues to weaken, greige prices will likely loosen within two weeks.
Industry Impact: Weaving Margins Squeezed, Procurement Strategy Needs Adjustment
For greige fabric mills, the current situation is awkward. While raw material procurement costs are falling, high-cost inventories from earlier purchases have not been fully consumed, eroding book profits. For instance, the reference price for water-jet semi-elastic pongee 170T has held at 1.40 RMB/meter for about a week, but raw material costs have dropped roughly 2% since the start of the month. If greige prices cannot adjust downward in tandem, mills will face the dilemma of "selling high-cost raw materials at low prices."
For downstream apparel manufacturers and traders, this is a bargaining window. Since greige prices have not yet fully reflected raw material declines, buyers can use "raw material price drop" as a reason to demand concessions, leaving mills with weak negotiating leverage. Industry data shows loom utilization in Changxing remains around 75%, with no large-scale stoppages, indicating mills are struggling to maintain production, which gives buyers room to negotiate better prices.
Practical Recommendations
For Buyers - Seize the negotiation window for greige fabric over the next two weeks, using the "average polyester yarn price drop of 1.5% weekly" as a basis to demand 2%-3% discounts from suppliers. - Consider switching to pure polyester yarn if color fastness requirements are not strict, as it is now cheaper than T/C blends, reducing fabric costs. - Avoid bulk stockpiling; given further downside risk in PTA, purchase on order basis and shorten inventory cycles.
For Export Companies - Use "floating price clauses" in export contracts, referencing polyester yarn price indices to avoid profit surges from raw material declines that may lead customers to demand rebates. - Monitor Southeast Asian markets: India and Vietnam have also cut polyester yarn prices recently; recalculate the export competitiveness of Changxing greige fabrics. - Leverage the exchange rate window: if the RMB remains weak, consider slightly raising USD-denominated prices to offset the total price decline from lower raw material costs.
In summary, the Changxing market is undergoing a cost-driven price restructuring. The short-term trend depends on whether PTA can stabilize; if upstream continues to weaken, greige fabric price cuts will become inevitable. However, this adjustment also creates low-cost entry opportunities for stocking up before the peak season in the second half of the year.