Pakistan Cotton Yarn Imports Surge Amidst Global Glut: Structural Shifts in the Open-End Spun Market

China's imported cotton yarn market is undergoing a quiet structural realignment. According to customs data, total cotton yarn imports in May 2026 reached approximately 172,200 tons, a month-on-month decline of 14.03% but a year-on-year surge of 71.75%. Behind these seemingly contradictory figures lies a fierce battle for market share among different source countries.

The Logic Behind Pakistan's Surge

Vietnam and India, the two traditional heavyweights, saw their exports to China drop 11.83% and 29.38% month-on-month respectively, accounting for 60.65% of total imports—a marked contraction. In contrast, Pakistani cotton yarn imports remained flat month-on-month but skyrocketed 80.36% year-on-year, capturing a 12.37% share, making it the only major source that did not shrink.

This anomaly is no accident. The Pakistani rupee's long-term depreciation against the U.S. dollar has directly lowered FOB prices, boosting export competitiveness. Simultaneously, weak domestic demand in Pakistan has forced mills to redirect capacity overseas. Crucially, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have redirected some low-to-mid-count yarn orders from Southeast Asia back to China, and Pakistan has absorbed a portion of this shift.

Volume-Price Collapse in Open-End Spun

In stark contrast to Pakistan's activity, the overall open-end spun yarn market is mired in a slump. Feedback from weaving mills and yarn traders in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong indicates sluggish inquiries and transactions for both bonded and forward shipments. FOB/CNF/CIF quotes from Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India have continued to edge down, reflecting a supply glut.

Two factors explain this: first, the Southeast Asian order transfer phase is winding down, while domestic winter-spring orders have yet to materialize, creating a demand gap; second, market expectations of U.S. tariff hikes under Section 301 in July are dampening importers' appetite to restock. Against this backdrop, only Pakistan's 8S-21S siro-spun yarn shipments remain relatively resilient, serving as the sole bright spot in the open-end category.

Procurement Window Amid Risks

For Chinese weaving mills and traders, the current moment presents both opportunity and peril. A Zhejiang-based textile import-export firm noted that since mid-June, Pakistani cotton prices have corrected sharply, and with energy and power supply constraints easing, mill operating rates are rising, intensifying export pressure. This suggests that Pakistani yarn prices could soften further in the near term, offering a buying window for those who wait.

But risks are real. U.S. tariff uncertainty could disrupt import rhythms at any time, and while Pakistani yarn's cotton blend consistency is more reliable than some Southeast Asian competitors, the value of its transport advantage (via the China-Pakistan land corridor) against policy risks requires case-by-case assessment.

For Buyers - Monitor Pakistani cotton price trends and rupee exchange rate movements; consider phased purchases during price dips rather than locking in a single price point. - Prioritize forward contracts for 8S-21S siro-spun yarn, which currently offers stable shipments and greater bargaining room. - Adopt a wait-and-see approach for Vietnamese and Indian open-end yarn until the July tariff decision is clarified.

For Foreign Trade Firms - Strengthen one-on-one communication with Pakistani mills to negotiate better payment terms during their heightened export pressure period. - Adjust inventory mix by reducing stock of Vietnamese and Indian open-end yarn while increasing regular holdings of Pakistani yarn. - Prepare alternative plans for U.S. tariff risks, such as transshipment through Southeast Asia or leveraging the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor land route.