The latest price data from the Changxing polyester filament market on June 29 sends a clear signal: upstream raw materials are undergoing a systematic price cut, while downstream greige fabric prices remain unchanged. This is not simply a failure of cost transmission; it reflects diverging expectations across the supply chain.
Upstream Raw Materials: POY Leads Decline, Whole Chain Under Pressure
Among the price drops, POY suffered the most. For example, Shenjiu Chemical's 75D/36F POY fell from 8,550 yuan/ton on June 22 to 8,350 yuan/ton, a drop of 200 yuan/ton. FDY also weakened, with Xinfengming's 50D/24F dropping from 9,400 to 9,200 yuan/ton. DTY saw a milder decline of around 100 yuan/ton.
- POY 75D/36F: 8,550 → 8,350 yuan/ton (-2.34%)
- FDY 50D/24F: 9,400 → 9,200 yuan/ton (-2.13%)
- DTY 75D/36F: 10,000 → 9,900 yuan/ton (-1.00%)
Pure polyester yarn and T/C blended yarn also declined. Pure polyester yarn 21s fell from 10,600 to 10,400 yuan/ton, while T/C 80/20 21s dropped from 15,900 to 15,800 yuan/ton. Notably, T/C 90/10 45s held steady, showing slightly better resilience in high-count blends.
This broad-based decline across all specifications and origins indicates a collective weakening of expectations in the upstream polyester chain. Multiple major producers, including Tongkun, Rongsheng, and Xinfengming, adjusted prices simultaneously, confirming an industry-wide correction.
Midstream: Greige Prices Stagnant, Weavers Face Dilemma
In stark contrast to upstream declines, greige fabric reference prices in Changxing remained flat from June 22 to 29. Key varieties such as 170T semi-elastic pongee, 160T polyester taffeta, satin, and cotton velvet all showed no change.
- 160T polyester taffeta: 1.20 yuan/meter (flat)
- 11x5x28x152 satin: 1.97 yuan/meter (flat)
- 17x5x35x160 satin: 3.20 yuan/meter (flat)
Behind this price stagnation lies a dual squeeze on weavers: lower upstream costs theoretically reduce input costs, but weak end-demand for apparel fabrics and rising greige inventories force weavers to avoid price cuts that could worsen market sentiment. Yet holding prices also strains cash flow.
From an industry logic perspective, this price rigidity is unsustainable. If upstream declines persist beyond two weeks, weavers will likely loosen prices to compete for limited orders. The current flatness may be the calm before the storm.
Trend Outlook: Downward Volatility Likely
Based on two consecutive weekly data points from Changxing, several conclusions emerge:
First, the polyester filament price decline has not yet bottomed. POY, as an intermediate product, is highly sensitive to crude oil and PX fluctuations. With oil prices trending weak and weaving mill operating rates low, POY inventories remain under pressure. Further declines are expected in the short term.
Second, greige fabric prices face catch-down risk. Current reference prices have been static for a week, but actual transaction prices may already be lower than listed prices. As upstream continues to weaken, greige prices are likely to drop 5%-10% by mid-July.
Third, differentiated products may offer a safe haven. DTY declined less than POY and FDY, and high-count T/C yarn even held flat. This suggests products with technical barriers or functional value show stronger resilience during price downturns.