The down trade market is undergoing a sharp structural shift. Data for Jan-May 2026 shows the growth gap between exports and imports has widened to over 60 percentage points. May imports surged 66% year-on-year, while exports continued to decline. This contrast is not a short-term fluctuation but the result of global consumption shifts and domestic industrial upgrading.
Import Boom: Price-Volume Divergence Signals Premiumization
The core of import data lies in price-volume divergence. Jan-May raw down import volume rose only 13.1%, but value soared 70.3%, with unit prices up over 50%. May alone saw import value jump 118.6% versus a 9.5% volume increase, indicating international premium down prices have entered a high range.
Domestic brands' willingness to purchase high-quality raw materials hasn't shrunk despite high prices. Down garment imports also strengthened, with Jan-May volume up 25.3% and value up 29.9%; May growth accelerated to around 40%. This shows Chinese consumers are moving from trial to regular purchases of imported high-end down apparel, creating differentiation from domestic brands.
Export Pressure: Passive Adjustment Under External Cycles
Export performance is relatively dim. Jan-May cumulative exports reached $650 million, down 14.2% year-on-year, with the decline slightly widening from the first four months. The overseas consumer cycle downturn is the main drag, especially as European and U.S. markets slow down non-essential purchases like down jackets due to inflation aftereffects and consumption downgrades.
However, the export decline isn't a total rout. Some companies are shifting focus to functional fabrics and lightweight down jackets, seeking new price anchors overseas. But overall, traditional foreign trade models face dual pressure from margin compression and order fragmentation.
Industry Logic Reconstruction: From Export-Oriented to Dual Circulation
The current import-export divergence essentially reflects a redistribution of industry value chains. Over the past decade, China's down industry relied heavily on export processing, with profit margins long suppressed by overseas brands. Now, domestic premiumization is forcing companies to push both upstream raw material and downstream branding.
High international raw material prices are both a pressure and an opportunity for domestic farms and processors. On one hand, higher procurement costs compress short-term profits; on the other, they create a window for domestic premium down to gain pricing power. If Chinese companies accelerate breed improvement and standardization, they could partially replace imports in the future.