In late June 2026, Fujian's spandex market reported a set of flat data: the ex-factory price for 20D specification stabilized at 33,000-35,000 RMB/ton, 30D at 32,000-33,000 RMB/ton, and 40D at 30,000-31,000 RMB/ton. The narrow price range and minimal fluctuation are rare in recent quarters. These numbers appear calm, but beneath the surface lies a continuous tug-of-war between cost pressures and demand weakness.
Signals in Price Structure
Notably, the price differentials across specifications have not narrowed despite overall stability. The gap between 20D and 40D remains at 3,000-4,000 RMB/ton, consistent with raw material consumption ratios—fine denier yarns consume more PTMEG and MDI per unit, making cost transmission more direct. Fujian, as a concentrated spandex production region in China, often serves as a bellwether for the East China market. Current quotations sit in the mid-to-low range for the year but have not hit last year's lows, indicating that cost-floor support remains intact.
Lagged but Resilient Cost Transmission
Spandex's direct raw materials, PTMEG and MDI, experienced a rise-then-stabilize trend in the first half of the year. PTMEG remained elevated due to tight BDO (1,4-butanediol) supply, while MDI showed periodic firmness amid global plant maintenance. Fujian spandex mills have not gained significant cost relief, explaining their reluctance to cut prices for volume. However, downstream fabric mills report a different picture: circular knitting and warp knitting utilization rates edged lower in June, and greige fabric inventory digestion has slowed. Cost transmission upstream is blocked, leaving spandex factories in a dilemma—raising prices risks losing orders, while lowering prices erodes margins.
The 'Wait-and-See' Procurement Mentality
Industry public data shows that inventory turnover days for Fujian spandex plants increased by 2-3 days sequentially in late June, though not yet alarming. Downstream buyers generally maintain just-in-time replenishment, avoiding excess stockpiling. This 'wait-and-see' approach stems from three considerations: uncertainty about Q3 apparel orders, expectations of further raw material price declines, and the common need to compress raw material inventories under capital cost pressure. Procurement strategies have shifted from 'weekly price inquiries' to 'order-by-order locking,' reflecting fragile market confidence.
Long-Term Pressure from Capacity Expansion
Looking at a longer cycle, planned new spandex capacity in Fujian and neighboring provinces is still pending release. Although some projects have been delayed due to environmental reviews and market factors, the expectation of growing total supply has not faded. The current price stalemate is, in a sense, an intermediate state of competition between old and new capacity: existing mills try to maintain profits through stable pricing, while potential entrants wait for a lower entry point. Once this dynamic equilibrium breaks, the speed of price decline could exceed expectations.