PTA and Polyester Prices Diverge: Textile Raw Material Market Enters a Period of Differentiated Game

The divergence between upstream raw materials and downstream chemical fiber prices has become rare. On June 29, industry data showed PTA rose 0.90% to 5,785.66 yuan/ton, up 13.78% year-on-year; acrylonitrile also rose 0.50%. However, polyester FDY fell 0.68%, and polyester staple fiber dropped 0.43%, with DTY and POY also weakening. This imbalance reveals deep structural issues in profit distribution and demand transmission along the textile supply chain.

Cost vs. Demand Dynamics

PTA, the core raw material for polyester filament, should support downstream prices when rising. But polyester FDY's decline indicates that downstream weaving orders are not keeping pace. Year-on-year, polyester FDY is up 14.64% and PTA up 13.78%—similar growth rates. The recent divergence shows growing inventory pressure downstream. For fabric buyers, this means bargaining room for polyester filament is expanding, but they must watch for potential price crashes if raw material costs fall.

Raw silk prices continued to weaken, dropping 0.35% to 426,600 yuan/ton, down 9.89% year-on-year. This reflects sluggish global demand for real silk and competition from alternative fibers. For silk producers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, lower raw material costs are a mixed blessing—terminal order shrinkage may be larger, leaving margins uncertain.

Cotton and Viscose: Quiet Signals

Cotton yarn 21S and 32S prices remained flat, with raw cotton down 0.20%. Despite apparent stability, raw cotton is up 15.08% year-on-year, while cotton yarns rose only 6.5%-7.5%, squeezing spinners' profits. Cotton prices are in a high-level range, but downstream gray fabric and garment orders show no large-scale restocking. Viscose staple fiber and spandex prices were also flat; spandex is up 21.09% year-on-year, but the plateau suggests buyers are waiting for a pullback.

Polyester Chain: Pressure and Opportunity

Polyester is the most telling stress test in this data. PTA rising while polyester falls is essentially a profit shift from polyester to PTA. Large integrated polyester producers with captive PTA supply can leverage cost advantages, but smaller mills relying on external PTA face squeezed margins. For buyers, the short-term drop in polyester staple fiber and FDY may attract bargain orders, but they must consider inventory digestion cycles—if textile and apparel exports don't pick up in Q3, prices may fall further.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Polyester filament now offers wider bargaining room; lock in low prices in batches but control single purchase volumes to hedge against further declines. - Raw silk prices are trending lower; sign quarterly floating-price contracts with suppliers to avoid long-term locks. - With cotton yarn and raw cotton price spreads narrowing, prioritize blended yarns to balance costs.

For Exporters - With PTA cost support, raise export prices for polyester fabrics moderately, but include raw material fluctuation adjustment clauses in contracts. - Monitor acrylonitrile price hikes' impact on acrylic yarn export costs, and communicate price adjustments with clients early. - Use the low raw silk window to develop differentiated silk-blend products for higher export value.