Spandex prices have been fluctuating within a narrow range for several consecutive weeks. In Fujian, ex-factory prices for 20D, 30D, and 40D grades are locked at 33,000-35,000, 32,000-33,000, and 30,000-31,000 yuan per ton, respectively. This stalemate is no coincidence; it reveals a structural imbalance in the current textile supply chain between upstream cost transmission and downstream demand absorption.
The Battle Between Cost and Demand
On the cost side, the prices of spandex's main raw materials, PTMEG and MDI, have remained high recently, providing rigid support for spandex ex-factory prices. Mills generally indicate that further price declines would push them below breakeven, so they are strongly inclined to hold prices. However, downstream weaving and apparel companies have not aligned with this logic. The recovery in end-user orders has fallen short of expectations, leading fabric manufacturers to adopt conservative purchasing strategies, replenishing only as needed and refusing to build excess inventory.
This situation of 'upstream unwilling to cut, downstream unwilling to buy' has trapped the spandex market in a classic pattern of declining volume and stagnant prices. Public industry data shows that operating rates at spandex plants in Fujian have fallen from over 80% at the beginning of the year to around 70%, with some small and medium-sized production lines even running intermittently.
The Transmission Effect on Industrial Clusters
As one of China's concentrated spandex production areas, Fujian's market dynamics serve as a bellwether for the national market. Local spandex companies primarily supply knitting and warp-knitting clusters in Guangdong and Zhejiang. Currently, order books at these downstream clusters are generally insufficient, with demand for stretch fabrics slowing markedly.
By category, the 40D grade, as the most widely circulated general-purpose model, has maintained its price range of 30,000-31,000 yuan per ton for nearly a month. While the higher-end 20D and 30D grades command higher quotes, actual transactions tend to gravitate toward the lower end of the range. This suggests that even differentiated products have not fully escaped the pressure of the broader environment.
Where Is the Turning Point for Price Expectations?
In the short term, a breakout from the current stalemate requires one of two conditions: either a significant easing on the cost side or a substantial recovery in downstream demand. Based on current trends, the tight supply situation for raw materials like PTMEG may ease in the third quarter, potentially weakening cost support for spandex. However, the traditional stocking period for autumn and winter fabrics will also begin, offering the possibility of marginal demand improvement.
Overall, August and September will be the critical window for determining the direction of spandex prices. If demand recovery proves weaker than expected, the probability of prices falling below 29,000 yuan per ton will increase significantly. Conversely, if orders are released intensively, the current price range could become a temporary bottom.