China's customs data for May 2026 reveals a structural divergence in cotton yarn imports: total imports fell 14.03% month-on-month to 172,200 tons, yet imports from Pakistan surged 80.36% year-on-year to 21,310 tons, remaining flat month-on-month. This contrast signals that while traditional suppliers like Vietnam and India are contracting, Pakistan is reshaping the competitive landscape for low-to-mid count yarns.
Open-End Spinning: Volume and Price Decline
In stark contrast to Pakistani yarn's resilience, the open-end spinning market is experiencing a simultaneous drop in volume and price. Feedback from major weaving clusters in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong indicates that inquiries and transactions for bonded and forward open-end yarn at ports have slowed markedly. FOB/CNF/CIF offers from Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India continue to edge down, reflecting destocking pressure among Southeast Asian mills as the order transfer boom fades.
Industry sources attribute this to a combination of factors: the tail end of diverted textile orders from Southeast Asia, the absence of domestic winter-spring orders, and market caution ahead of potential US 301 tariff adjustments in July. Downstream fabric mills and traders are adopting a 'just-in-time' buying strategy, avoiding active stockpiling, which directly suppresses open-end yarn liquidity.
Drivers Behind Pakistan's Growth
Pakistan's outperformance is no accident. At the macro level, geopolitical tensions involving the US, Israel, and Iran have redirected some low-margin textile and apparel orders back to China, where Pakistani yarn—with its stable cotton blend and shorter shipping distance—has become a preferred choice. More critically, the Pakistani rupee's long-term depreciation against the US dollar has lowered the dollar-denominated cost of Pakistani yarn, boosting its export competitiveness.
Simultaneously, Pakistan's domestic textile sector is under a dual squeeze: weak domestic demand and improving supply. Cotton prices have dropped sharply since mid-June, and energy and power supply shortages have eased significantly, leading to rising mill operating rates. With capacity expanding and local demand sluggish, mills are aggressively pushing exports, with China as the primary destination.
Resilience in Siro Spun Yarn
Notably, amid the overall weakness in open-end yarn, Pakistan's 8S-21S siro spun yarn shipments have not shown significant decline. This reflects the category's irreplaceability in specific applications like denim and workwear, and Pakistan's established customer base in this segment. For domestic weavers, the cost-performance advantage of siro spun yarn is especially pronounced during periods of raw material price volatility.
A Window for Strategic Restocking
The strategy of a Zhejiang-based textile import-export company is telling: holding cash and waiting for opportunities to restock Pakistani cotton yarn. The logic is straightforward—after the sharp correction in Pakistani cotton prices, mill cost pressures have eased, but the rupee's depreciation trend remains intact, suggesting further downside in future offers.