On the morning of June 30, the spot price of polyester staple fiber in Jiangsu showed a notable uptick. According to publicly available industry data, the spot price rose 35 yuan/ton from the previous day to 7,260 yuan/ton, with the negotiation range concentrated between 7,250 and 7,350 yuan/ton, while lower-priced cargoes were quoted around 7,050 yuan/ton. This increase stands out in the otherwise subdued market and reflects a confluence of cost-side factors.
Triple Pressure from the Cost Side
The core driver of this price rally comes from raw material costs. Overnight, international crude oil prices rebounded amid lingering uncertainties in US-Iran negotiations, reigniting concerns over potential supply disruptions. Meanwhile, PX and PTA plants entered a concentrated maintenance season, tightening raw material supply and directly pushing up production costs for polyester staple fiber. For manufacturers, raw materials account for over 70% of total costs, meaning every 1% fluctuation in crude or PTA prices significantly impacts margins.
Notably, the price adjustment was not uniform across the entire sector. Jiangsu, as a major production and trading hub for polyester staple fiber, often sets the tone for the broader market. However, the presence of lower-priced cargoes at around 7,050 yuan/ton suggests that not all market participants are bullish, with some still prioritizing destocking.
Industrial Transmission: Stress Test from Upstream to Downstream
The rise in staple fiber prices implies higher raw material procurement costs for downstream spinning and weaving mills. The textile industry is currently in its traditional off-season, with limited recovery in end-user apparel orders. Downstream mills are caught in a dilemma: rising input costs but limited ability to pass them on to finished goods. If staple fiber prices continue to climb without a corresponding demand recovery, profit margins will be squeezed in the midstream processing segment.
From an inventory cycle perspective, staple fiber producers had relatively high stock levels before this rally, suggesting that the price hike partly aims to facilitate destocking. However, whether downstream buyers will accept higher prices depends on their order outlook. Currently, weaving mill operating rates hover around 60%, and restocking sentiment remains cautious, with most purchases on a need-to-buy basis.
Price Outlook: Short-Term Support, Medium-Term Depends on Demand
In the short term, staple fiber prices are likely to maintain support from the cost side. Crude oil volatility persists due to geopolitical factors, and raw material maintenance is not yet complete, making the supply contraction narrative credible for now. The key variable for the medium term is the pace of end-user demand recovery. If autumn/winter orders materialize as expected in July-August, staple fiber prices could find solid support in the 7,250-7,400 yuan/ton range. Conversely, if demand remains weak, the cost-driven gains may prove unsustainable, with downside risk emerging.