Nylon FDY prices have traced a deep V-shaped curve over the past year, rebounding from a mid-2025 low of 14,175 CNY/ton to a peak of 19,950 CNY/ton, only to retreat to around 16,300 CNY/ton in the first half of 2026. As of June 30, the daily change was zero, signaling a temporary equilibrium. This price sits 3,650 CNY/ton below the annual high and 2,125 CNY/ton above the low, with the median of 17,062.5 CNY/ton indicating a mid-low historical position.
Dual Squeeze from Cost and Demand
The main raw material, caprolactam, has weakened steadily in Q2, eroding cost support at the polymerization stage. Meanwhile, downstream weavers have adopted a hand-to-mouth procurement strategy, showing little appetite for bulk replenishment. The annual spread of 5,750 CNY/ton (max minus min) suggests that neither upstream nor downstream has established absolute pricing power in the chain.
For nylon FDY producers, the full-year average price of 15,595.97 CNY/ton is below the current spot price of 16,300 CNY/ton, indicating that most of the year saw lower selling prices and concentrated profit pressure in Q1. The modest recovery in Q2 has eased cash flow strains for some mills, but capacity utilization remains around 70%, with overcapacity still unresolved.
Regional Industrial Belt Transmission
In key nylon clusters such as Changle (Fujian) and Wujiang (Jiangsu), spinners face a dilemma: cutting prices in line with raw material declines would compress processing margins, while holding prices risks inventory buildup. Some mid-sized firms have begun shifting capacity toward nylon 66 or differentiated functional fibers to avoid homogeneous competition.
For fabric markets like Shengze and Keqiao, the stabilization of nylon FDY prices aids cost calculation for grey fabrics. However, the recovery of end-use garment orders has been slower than expected. Demand for light summer fabrics has largely been met, while autumn/winter fabric stocking has yet to commence on a large scale. Inventory digestion in intermediate channels will be a key variable for H2 price trends.
Strategies for Traders and Buyers
At 16,300 CNY/ton, the current level is neither a bargain nor a sell-off trigger. Large weaving mills with annual consumption above 1,000 tons are advised to increase long-term contract ratios to over 60% to lock in mid-level costs. Small and medium buyers can use futures or forward pricing tools to build positions incrementally in the 15,500-16,500 CNY/ton range.
Foreign trade firms must monitor exchange rate impacts on export quotes. Downstream sectors like luggage and outdoor gear face inventory destocking in European and U.S. markets. A potential depreciation of the renminbi could temporarily boost export competitiveness but is unlikely to reverse the overall weak demand trend.
H2 Price Range Forecast
Combining raw material trends and end demand, nylon FDY is likely to fluctuate within 15,500-17,000 CNY/ton in Q3. If international oil prices rebound and lift caprolactam costs, prices could touch 17,500 CNY/ton. Conversely, if downstream orders remain sluggish, a retest of 15,000 CNY/ton cannot be ruled out.