Viscose staple fiber prices are approaching their highest level in three years. As of June 30, 2026, the benchmark price for 1.2D grade stood at 14,200 yuan per ton, an increase of nearly 11% from the year's low of 12,800 yuan per ton. This price not only represents a 12-month peak but also triggers overbought warnings for 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year periods.
Price Trajectory and Cost Transmission
Over the past 12 months, viscose staple fiber prices have shown a clear V-shaped recovery. The trough of 12,800 yuan/ton occurred in mid-2025, followed by a gradual rise to the current high. Compared to the median of 13,500 yuan/ton, the current level is 700 yuan higher, indicating a strong market.
This price movement is driven by multiple factors. Upstream dissolving pulp costs have risen significantly, while several domestic viscose staple fiber plants underwent concentrated maintenance in Q2, leading to temporary supply constraints. Meanwhile, downstream rayon yarn markets maintained steady demand driven by summer orders, pushing the price center higher.
For spinning mills, the 14,200 yuan/ton raw material cost means yarn production costs have increased by approximately 1,400 yuan per ton year-on-year. If yarn prices fail to pass through these costs, gross margins could shrink by about two percentage points, particularly in the mid-to-low-end rayon yarn segment where price competition is intense.
Regional Industry Responses
Major consumption areas for viscose staple fiber include Xiaoshan and Shaoxing in Zhejiang, as well as Wujiang and Nantong in Jiangsu. According to publicly available industry data, rayon yarn mill operating rates in Xiaoshan remained around 75% in the last week of June, but new orders were primarily short-term and small-volume, reflecting downstream caution toward high-priced raw materials.
Notably, the current price has reached a three-year top range. Historically, such highs are often followed by a wait-and-see attitude from downstream buyers. Some weaving mills have begun adjusting product mixes, reducing rayon product share in favor of polyester-cotton blends or pure polyester. If this substitution trend continues, it will pressure viscose staple fiber demand.
On the foreign trade front, demand from Southeast Asian markets for Chinese viscose staple fiber saw a month-on-month decline in June, mainly due to slowing order growth from Europe and the US in end-use garment exporting countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam. This weakens export price support and adds pressure to the domestic market.
Short-Term Outlook and Strategy
From a technical perspective, viscose staple fiber prices show clear signs of stagnation around 14,200 yuan/ton. Zero daily change and prolonged sideways trading indicate a temporary balance between buyers and sellers. However, the triggering of overbought warnings typically increases the probability of a mean reversion.
Historical data suggests that in similar high ranges, viscose staple fiber prices have corrected by an average of 3% to 5%, corresponding to a range of 13,500 to 13,800 yuan/ton. Unless downstream demand surprises to the upside, a moderate correction in Q3 is likely.