The imported cotton yarn market is undergoing a quiet structural reshuffle. According to May 2026 customs data, China's total cotton yarn imports reached approximately 172,200 tons, down 14.03% month-on-month. However, imports from Pakistan bucked the trend, rising to 21,310 tons, a year-on-year surge of 80.36%, far outperforming traditional suppliers Vietnam and India.
Drivers of Pakistani Yarn's Surge
Pakistani yarn's strong performance is no coincidence. First, the geopolitical conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran has redirected some low-margin spinning and garment orders from Southeast Asia back to China. Pakistani mills, with stable cotton blending and logistical advantages, have been the primary beneficiaries of this shift.
Second, the sustained depreciation of the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar provides continuous export price elasticity. A weaker rupee makes FOB quotes more competitive, while improved mill operating rates after easing energy and power shortages further lower export costs.
Third, weak domestic demand in Pakistan forces mills to pivot to exports. Falling domestic cotton prices and rising inventory pressure make overseas sales the only outlet. The 'two-way flow' of cotton yarn and fabric between China and Pakistan provides stable policy and logistics support for Pakistani yarn entering the Chinese market.
Divergence Between Open-End and Siro Yarn
By category, open-end yarn is facing a dual decline in volume and price. Mills and traders in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong report sluggish inquiries and transactions for both port-bonded and forward open-end yarn. FOB/CNF/CIF quotes from Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India are edging down, signaling a global oversupply of low-count yarns.
In contrast, demand for Pakistani 8S-21S siro yarn remains robust. Siro yarn's rigid demand in denim and workwear fabrics provides resilience amid the overall import downturn. This divergence suggests that domestic buyers are shifting from 'lowest price' to 'best value' – Pakistani siro yarn strikes a better balance between price and quality.
Implications for Mills and Traders
The market is currently in a vacuum period between the tail end of Southeast Asian order backflow and the start of domestic winter-spring orders. The expected US tariff hikes under the Section 301 investigation further dampen stocking appetites. A wait-and-see stance dominates.
The strategy of a Zhejiang-based textile import-export firm is instructive: use the window of falling Pakistani cotton prices and the rupee's depreciation trend to wait for replenishment opportunities. For mills, during the open-end yarn price downturn, it is advisable to compress inventory cycles and shift to spot purchases. For siro yarn, quarterly contracts can lock in stable costs.