The polyester chain has rebounded for two consecutive sessions after a deep correction, with PX and PTA futures gaining nearly 1%. But is this a trend reversal or merely a temporary sentiment release? The answer lies in the structural contradictions at both ends of the supply chain.
Supply Side: Record PTA Maintenance, Clear De-stocking Logic
The concentrated maintenance wave in the PTA industry starting in April is unprecedented. Industry data shows that capacity under shutdown or reduced load once exceeded 22 million tons, accounting for over 20% of China's total PTA capacity. The daily capacity utilization rate fell to approximately 60%, the lowest since October 2021. This has directly pushed the industry into a de-stocking phase, with social inventories declining continuously, providing bottom support for prices.
The PX side also shows a tight pattern. PX prices did not fall below pre-geopolitical conflict levels during the recent downturn, reflecting limited supply elasticity. With the Strait of Hormuz transit volume recovering to about 75% of pre-conflict levels, there is potential for early restart of PX units previously under maintenance. However, shipping insurance premiums remain high, indicating geopolitical premiums have not been fully priced out.
Demand Side: Terminal Orders Recover, but Transmission Chain Remains Fragile
In contrast to the tightening supply, downstream demand recovery has been slow. As of June 18, the average operating rate of China's polyester industry was 80.19%, down 8.44 percentage points year-on-year, corresponding to a weekly PTA demand of about 1.34 million tons. The weaving industry operating rate was only 57%, down 13 percentage points year-on-year. Weakened terminal purchasing intentions have led to rising polyester filament yarn inventories, putting pressure on the midstream polyester segment.
However, recent terminal orders have shown signs of recovery, and with the traditional peak season approaching, there are expectations of restocking momentum. Except for polyester chips and DTY, other polyester products maintain a profit margin of 200-300 yuan per ton, indicating that midstream enterprises still have production willingness and have not entered loss-making cuts.
Pricing Logic: Balancing Tight Upstream and Weak Downstream
The current industrial chain presents a typical pattern of 'tight upstream, compressed midstream, weak downstream recovery.' The supply gap from PTA maintenance is the core driver of the price rebound, but weak cost and demand sides limit the recovery space. If PX units restart quickly after the Strait of Hormuz transit expectations materialize, upstream supply elasticity will be released, posing a risk of cost collapse for PTA.
For buyers, short-term trends depend heavily on the execution of maintenance and the realization of peak season orders. If weaving operating rates continue to decline during the July-August off-season, polyester inventory pressure will further transmit to the PTA side, making the rebound unsustainable.