China's customs data for May 2026 reveals a 14.03% month-on-month decline in total cotton yarn imports, yet Pakistani yarn imports surged 80.36% year-on-year. This contrast signals a structural shift in the low-count yarn market, where Pakistani yarn is rapidly gaining ground against traditional suppliers like Vietnam and India.
Import Volume Contracts, Pakistani Yarn Stands Out
In May 2026, China imported approximately 172,200 tons of cotton yarn, down 14.03% month-on-month but up 71.75% year-on-year. Vietnam and India, the traditional leading suppliers, saw imports drop 11.83% and 29.38% month-on-month, respectively, accounting for 47.63% and 13.02% of total imports. In contrast, Pakistani imports reached 21,310 tons, a 12.37% share, flat month-on-month but with a remarkable year-on-year growth of 80.36%.
This data clearly indicates that Pakistani yarn's competitiveness is strengthening substantially. Industry insiders believe this is not a short-term fluctuation but the result of multiple structural factors converging.
Four Drivers Behind Pakistani Yarn's Rise
The key factors driving the surge in Pakistani yarn imports can be summarized in four points. First, geopolitical events such as the US-Iran conflict have redirected some low-margin, low-count textile orders from Southeast Asia back to China. These orders are highly cost-sensitive, and Pakistani yarn offers a natural price advantage.
Second, the Pakistani rupee's sustained depreciation against the US dollar has lowered the export price of Pakistani yarn, enhancing its price appeal. For Chinese weaving mills and traders, this means lower procurement costs.
Third, weak domestic demand in Pakistan has forced mills to increase export efforts. With energy and power supply crises easing, mill operating rates have recovered, and capacity release combined with lackluster domestic demand makes exports the logical choice.
Fourth, the China-Pakistan cotton yarn trade has achieved a "two-way street" dynamic. Pakistani yarn has stable cotton blending, shorter transportation distances, and faster logistics, offering supply chain reliability superior to that of Vietnam and India for key consuming regions like Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang.
Open-End Spun Market Under Pressure, Pakistani Siro-Spun Holds Up
By product type, open-end spun yarn is facing declining volumes and prices. Feedback from weaving mills and traders in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong indicates that with Southeast Asian transfer orders winding down and domestic winter-spring orders not yet placed, inquiries and transactions for bonded and forward open-end spun yarn have slowed. FOB/CNF/CIF offers from Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India have continued to edge lower.
In contrast, Pakistani 8S-21S siro-spun yarn shipments have not weakened significantly. This suggests that in the low-count segment, Pakistani yarn is winning not only on price but also on product consistency and delivery reliability.
Outlook: Replenishment Window May Be Open
On the cost side, Pakistani cotton prices have fallen sharply since mid-June, easing raw material cost pressure for mills. Meanwhile, the rupee's medium- to long-term depreciation trend remains intact, further strengthening Pakistani yarn's export competitiveness.
For Chinese importers, the current period may represent a favorable replenishment window. Traders holding cash should closely monitor Pakistani cotton price movements and exchange rate trends to lock in forward cargoes at advantageous terms.