Down Market Polarization: Exports Drop 14% While Imports Surge 66%, High-End Raw Material Battle Intensifies

China's down industry is experiencing a rare internal market divergence. Customs data for Jan-May 2025 shows total exports fell 14.2% year-on-year to $650 million, while imports surged 46.5% to $350 million. In May alone, import growth hit 66%, reaching $87.09 million. This is not a seasonal fluctuation but a concentrated reflection of global consumption restructuring across the down supply chain.

Export Pressure: Short-Term Pain from Overseas Consumer Cycles

The export weakness is not sudden. The cumulative decline from Jan-Apr was already expanding, and May data confirms the trend. Overseas consumer cycles are the primary driver, with US and European demand for down products shrinking. Meanwhile, global consumption is shifting from basic warmth to lightweight, functional alternatives, pressuring traditional down export categories.

By product category, terminal items like down jackets and duvets are hardest hit. However, the fundamentals of China's down industry remain intact—companies continue product iteration, increasing the share of differentiated products like high-fill-power and water-repellent down. This suggests the export decline is more about volume contraction than competitiveness loss. For foreign trade firms, short-term order fluctuations are cyclical, but long-term attention must focus on changing consumer preferences.

Import Surge: Dual Drive from Domestic Upgrade and Raw Material Scarcity

The import surge is the most telling signal in this data. Raw down import volume grew only 13.1% in Jan-May, but value surged 70.3%, with May alone up 118.6%. This severe divergence points to one fact: international premium down raw material prices are rapidly rising.

Global supply of high-quality white goose down and gray duck down is limited, with European and Eastern European production growing slowly. Meanwhile, Chinese demand for high-fill-power, low-odor materials is exploding. Domestic brands like Bosideng and Anta continue moving upmarket, pushing material requirements from national first-level to international top-tier standards. This demand spillover directly pushes up import unit prices.

Down apparel imports also strengthened, with Jan-May cumulative imports of 2.017 million pieces valued at $180 million, up 25.3% and 29.9% respectively. This reflects sustained purchasing power for high-end brands like Canada Goose and Moncler among Chinese consumers, with local brands yet to fully substitute in the premium price segment.

Industry Transmission: Raw Material Cost Pressure Spreads Downstream

Rising import raw material prices are reshaping profit distribution across the down supply chain. Upstream traders and large processors benefit from price increases, but midstream fabric mills, filling suppliers, and downstream garment manufacturers face cost compression.

For buyers, the procurement window for down raw materials in H2 2025 may be shorter than usual. High international prices combined with RMB exchange rate volatility make import cost control difficult. Meanwhile, domestic raw material markets, anchored by import prices, cannot escape the trend.

Another transmission chain worth watching: rapid growth in imported high-end finished garments is forcing domestic brands to accelerate product upgrades. If local brands cannot establish advantages in segments like 800+ fill power or water-repellent down, high-end market share may continue being eroded by imports.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Lock in long-term supply contracts: With tight supply of premium materials, sign quarterly or semi-annual framework agreements with reputable importers or large domestic down processors to secure price and quality. - Evaluate substitute materials: While maintaining quality, consider using high-grade domestic gray duck down or treated white goose down as partial alternatives to reduce reliance on single international sources. - Optimize procurement timing: Avoid the traditional peak season of Sep-Oct; consider early procurement in Jul-Aug to leverage seasonal price fluctuations and reduce costs.

For Foreign Trade Firms - Adjust export product mix: Shift from traditional down duvets and jackets to functional down products like outdoor sleeping bags and lightweight coats, aligning with the global trend toward lightweight consumption. - Explore emerging markets: When European and North American demand weakens, increase development efforts in Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East, where demand for mid-to-high-end down products is growing. - Strengthen brand premium: Use certifications like GRS and RDS to enhance product added value, build quality trust with overseas clients, and hedge against price competition.