The polyester chain extended its rebound early this week, with PX and PTA futures closing up 0.87% and 0.91% respectively. This rebound is more of an emotional recovery after the earlier panic selling rather than a signal of fundamental reversal. What deserves real attention is the deepening supply-demand mismatch across the chain, with Q3 becoming a critical turning point for the long-short battle.
Supply Side: PTA Maintenance Takes Effect, PX Remains Uncertain
On the supply side, the massive maintenance wave in the PTA sector since April has shown significant results. Industry data shows that capacity involved in shutdowns and load reductions once exceeded 22 million tons, accounting for over 20% of total domestic capacity. PTA daily capacity utilization once fell to around 60%, the lowest since October 2021. This directly pushed the industry into a destocking phase, with social inventories declining continuously, providing bottom support for prices.
But the situation on the PX side is more complex. PX prices did not break below pre-conflict levels during this downturn, reflecting its own tight supply pattern. However, with improved navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz—currently at about 75% of pre-conflict levels—previously idled PX units may restart early. If PX supply increases, it will directly weaken the cost support logic for PTA.
Demand Side: Illusion of Off-Season Strength and Inventory Pressure
On the demand side, downstream polyester sector's overall profits are acceptable. Except for polyester chips and polyester filament yarn DTY, other products still maintain profit margins of 200-300 yuan per ton. This supports polyester plants' willingness to operate. As of June 18, the average operating rate in the domestic polyester industry was 80.19%, corresponding to a weekly PTA demand of about 1.34 million tons.
But the terminal weaving sector's performance is not optimistic. The same period saw weaving operating rates at only 57%, down 13 percentage points year-on-year. More critically, due to weakened terminal purchasing willingness, polyester filament yarn inventories continue to rise. This means midstream polyester plants are facing increasing sales pressure, potentially forcing them to cut loads or reduce prices to destock.
Market Structure: Three-Layered Divergence
The current polyester chain presents a clear three-layer structure of 'tight upstream, squeezed midstream, weak downstream recovery'. Upstream PX is tight due to geopolitical factors and unit maintenance, midstream PTA gains short-term support from maintenance-driven destocking, but downstream polyester and weaving weakness is transmitting pressure upward.
This structure means any single link's price recovery is unsustainable. If downstream demand fails to materially recover, midstream inventory pressure will eventually force PTA and PX prices down. Conversely, if the traditional peak season in Q3 brings order volume, it could form positive transmission, driving price recovery across the chain.