PX and PTA futures prices edged up on June 30, with PX closing up 0.87% and PTA up 0.91%, after a deep correction. This mild rebound reflects a rebalancing process amid supply contraction, easing geopolitical risks, and weak end demand. For textile practitioners, understanding the fragility of this balance is more meaningful than focusing on daily price moves.
PX Supply Tightness Unchanged but Restart Risks Loom
The recent PX price decline did not break through pre-conflict levels, indicating its fundamentally tight supply. The Strait of Hormuz shipping volume has recovered to about 75% of pre-conflict levels, but freight insurance rates remain high, meaning geopolitical risk premiums are not fully eliminated. More critically, strategic reserves in various countries have fallen to low levels, providing a floor for PX prices through theoretical restocking demand.
However, the industry should be alert to the potential early restart of PX units that were shut for maintenance as shipping expectations materialize. Once PX supply exceeds expectations, the current price support logic will be weakened. For PX buyers, now is not the time to chase prices; it is better to purchase on demand and wait for clearer signals.
PTA Maintenance Wave: Short-term De-stocking vs. Long-term Overcapacity
Since April, the domestic PTA industry has seen an unprecedented wave of concentrated maintenance, with shutdowns and load reductions involving over 22 million tons of capacity—more than 20% of total domestic capacity. PTA daily capacity utilization once fell to about 60%, the lowest since October 2021. This directly pushed the industry into a de-stocking phase, with social inventories declining, providing fundamental support for the PTA price rebound.
However, the maintenance wave is essentially a passive adjustment to previous overcapacity. Once profits recover, restarted units will quickly add supply pressure. The PTA industry remains in a state of 'tightening upstream, compressing midstream,' meaning PTA price rebounds are cost-driven rather than demand-driven, and their sustainability needs downstream verification.
Polyester Segment: Profitable but High Inventories, Limited Order Recovery
In the polyester segment, overall industry profits are acceptable, with most products having 200-300 yuan/ton profit margins except for polyester chip and DTY. But profits have not translated into higher operating rates—as of June 18, the average polyester operating rate was 80.19%, down 8.44 percentage points year-on-year, corresponding to weekly PTA demand of about 1.34 million tons. Weaving operating rate was only 57%, down 13 percentage points year-on-year.
More notably, polyester filament yarn inventories continue to rise. Weakened end-user purchasing willingness is the core reason, despite some signs of order recovery recently. It is currently the traditional off-season for consumption, and downstream weaving enterprises generally adopt a 'buy as needed' strategy, unwilling to build inventories. Polyester mills face the awkward situation of 'having profits, high inventories, but difficulty in selling.'
Transmission Mechanism: Where Is the Blockage?
The current industry chain shows a typical 'tight upstream, loose downstream' pattern: PX supply is tight, PTA is de-stocking due to maintenance, but polyester and weaving segments are weak, preventing upstream price recovery from effectively transmitting downstream. The PTA rebound is more a short-term result of cost push and supply contraction rather than demand pull.
For textile enterprises, this means:
- Upstream raw material prices have short-term support but limited upside due to downstream demand constraints
- Intermediate products like polyester filament yarn face high inventory pressure and weak bargaining power relative to upstream
- End-order recovery signals are unclear; restocking timing still needs to wait