In May 2026, China imported approximately 172,200 tons of cotton yarn, down 14% month-on-month but up a staggering 72% year-on-year. More notably, the import structure is undergoing a subtle yet dramatic shift: Pakistani cotton yarn, with 21,310 tons and an 80% year-on-year surge, became the only major source to record positive monthly growth, its market share rising to 12.37%—close to India's 13.02%.
The Industrial Logic Behind the Data
Pakistani yarn's counter-trend growth is no coincidence. On the cost side, the continuous depreciation of the Pakistani rupee against the U.S. dollar has directly lowered its export prices, keeping 8S-21S siro-spun yarn moving steadily in traditional weaving hubs like Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang. Meanwhile, improved power supply in Pakistan has raised mill operating rates, while weak domestic demand has forced factories to push exports—with China, the largest buyer, as the primary target.
A factor often underestimated is the impact of geopolitics on trade flows. The U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has redirected some low-margin, low-count textile orders originally destined for Southeast Asia back to China. After receiving these orders, Chinese mills naturally increased their procurement of Pakistani yarn. This 'order rerouting → raw material restocking' transmission chain is clearly validated in the May data.
Price-Volume Double Whammy in the Open-End Spun Market
In contrast to Pakistani yarn's activity, open-end spun yarn from Vietnam, India, and Indonesia is facing a price-volume double whammy. Customs data shows Vietnamese cotton yarn imports fell 11.83% month-on-month, while Indian imports plummeted 29.38%. Market feedback indicates that the wave of transferred orders from Southeast Asia is ending, while domestic winter-spring orders have yet to materialize. Combined with uncertainty over potential U.S. tariff hikes under Section 301 in July, inquiries and transactions for bonded and forward open-end spun yarn remain sluggish.
A textile import-export company in Zhejiang revealed that Pakistani cotton prices have corrected sharply since mid-June, yet traders are not rushing to restock—they are holding cash, waiting for a lower entry point. This reflects a widespread bearish outlook on future prices: even with Pakistani yarn's current competitiveness, buyers are betting on better deals.
The 'Two-Way Traffic' Effect in China-Pakistan Trade
The sustained competitiveness of Pakistani yarn is also underpinned by deeper policy and trade structure factors. China-Pakistan trade in cotton yarn and fabric is achieving a 'two-way traffic': China's demand for Pakistani yarn remains stable, while Pakistan's purchases of Chinese cotton are increasing, forming a complementary cycle along the industrial chain. Additionally, Pakistani yarn benefits from stable cotton blending, shorter transit distances, and clear time advantages—hard assets in the current period of supply chain restructuring.
For Chinese weaving mills and yarn traders, Pakistani yarn is shifting from a 'backup' to a 'preferred' option. However, its strength is concentrated in low-to-mid count varieties like 8S-21S siro-spun; in high-count and combed yarns, Vietnam and India still dominate. This means competition in the import market is moving from total volume to category differentiation.